This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that NFL owners have approved a rule change banning the “tush push” (also known as the “Brotherly Shove”) for the 2026 season before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from the NFL, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that The United States Government has placed a Tariff as of the Event Date Close in the amount predicted. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be The United States Government or a consensus of credible technology reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Congressman Mackenzie makes a formal, public apology for the Tinder age typo and deception before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be an official statement from Rep. Mackenzie (press release, campaign website, or verified social‑media post); however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if the deleted paragraph (or substantially similar wording about the Tinder scandal) is reinstated on the publicly accessible version of Ryan Mackenzie’s English‑language Wikipedia page before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be the edit history and live content of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryan_Mackenzie; reliable secondary coverage may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on publicly verifiable digital records.
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the New York Rangers have signed Mikael Granlund to an NHL contract before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from the New York Rangers or the NHL’s transaction wire, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
S&P last affirmed America’s AA+ / Stable standing on March 27th, 2024 This Event Outcome will Settle to “Yes” if S&P Global Ratings publicly announces that it has revised the long‑term sovereign outlook for the United States from “Stable” to a New Status before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to “Yes,” the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to “No.” The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official releases from S&P Global Ratings, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
This Event Outcome will Settle to “Yes” if Refinitiv or Bloomberg data confirm that the U.S. 30‑year Treasury benchmark yield settles ≥ 5.50 % on five straight trading days before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to “Yes,” the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to “No.” The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official Treasury yield data, however a consensus of credible reporting sources (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters) may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
This Event Outcome will Settle to “Yes” if a credible reporting source confirms that the Federal Reserve’s weekly balance‑sheet publication (Statistical Release H.4.1) lists Bitcoin as an asset held by the System Open Market Account before the Event Date Close. This is separate from the U.S. government, through an Executive Order, which has created a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, this reserve is distinct from the Federal Reserve and its balance sheet. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to “Yes”, the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to “No”. The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
This Event Outcome will Settle to “Yes” if a credible reporting source confirms that the President has signed and published an executive order (or presidential memorandum) explicitly directing the U.S. Treasury to peg the U.S. dollar to gold before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to “Yes”, the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to “No”. The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from the White House or the Federal Register; however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Will Congress carve out a “Papal clause” before recess? Will the House of Representatives pass a bill that exempts vow‑of‑poverty clergy abroad from filing U.S. returns to accommodate the new US born Pope Leo XIV? This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if the U.S. House of Representatives passes legislation that includes an explicit income‑tax filing exemption for vow‑of‑poverty clergy living abroad before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The tabling of legislation but not passing may Settle immediately the Event Outcome to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be the official congressional record; however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on a Legislative Passage.
This Event Outcome will Settle to “Yes” if a reputable peer‑reviewed journal (e.g., Science Robotics, Nature Biomedical Engineering) publishes an article that documents in‑vivo deployment of the edible robot performing a surgical or diagnostic function prior to the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to “Yes”, the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to “No”. The primary source for this Event Outcome will be the journal publication; however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on a Scientific Publication.
This Event Outcome will Settle to “Yes” if the assessed cash spot price of Neodymium‑Praseodymium (NdPr) oxide drops 10 % or more below its 15 May 2025 close of $53,176.25 USD/mt (excluding VAT) at any time before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to “Yes”, the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to “No”. The primary source for this Event Outcome will be the referenced benchmark price publishers; however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on a Commodity Price Movement.
This Event Outcome will Settle to “Yes” if Tesla Inc. (or a wholly‑owned subsidiary) publicly discloses that it has received an export license from China covering rare‑earth magnets or magnet assemblies intended for the Optimus robot or any other component in the Elon Musk Corporate related companies at any time before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to “Yes”, the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to “No”. The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official Tesla statements or SEC filings; however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on a Corporate Regulatory Approval.
Virgin Galactic paused sales at $600 k a seat in 2024—will the comeback price rocket past $1 million before launch-day buzz cools? This Event Outcome will Settle to “Yes” if a credible reporting source confirms that Virgin Galactic publicly sets a new passenger ticket price at or above $1 million at any time before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to “Yes”, the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to “No”. The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from Virgin Galactic; however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
UnitedHealth Group Inc drops below $100 by end of year excluding share splits as reported by NYSE. Context: The U.S. Department of Justice has launched a criminal investigation into UnitedHealth’s Medicare Advantage practices. Very few companies survive a Criminial Investigation by the Department of Justice. Arthur Anderson is a recent example. This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that UnitedHealth Group Inc drops below $100 by end of year. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from the closing price any day as reported by the NYSE. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on a Price Movement.
Will Mexican authorities finally apprehend Iván Archivaldo Guzmán, Mexico’s most elusive drug kingpin? Guzmán has repeatedly evaded capture through sophisticated tunnels and extensive support networks. This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms Iván Archivaldo Guzmán's capture by Mexican or U.S. authorities before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official statements from the Mexican government, U.S. government, or consensus from reputable news sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Argentinian Primera Division 2025
Will the U.S. government publicly announce an increase to the existing $10 million bounty for the capture of Iván Archivaldo Guzmán? This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source officially confirms an increase in the bounty by U.S. authorities before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official U.S. government statements or reputable news sources confirming the increase. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on Governmental Action and Public Announcement.
Will Adidas push the limits and release another running shoe with a sole height exceeding 50mm, dramatically surpassing World Athletics' legal threshold? Context: Adidas previously breached the 40mm rule with their Strung shoe, attracting both controversy and consumer excitement. This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms Adidas has officially released a new shoe with a sole height greater than 50mm before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official Adidas announcements or credible reporting sources confirming the product launch. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
NFL 2025