Events
Apple Announces an iPhone Model will be Fully "Made in America" iPhone Before 2026
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Apple announces an iPhone model that is manufactured entirely in the United States, without reliance on Chinese assembly, before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be Apple product announcements, manufacturing disclosures, or a consensus of credible technology reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Elon Musk Leaks "Proof" That the White House Blocked His SpaceX Rescue Mission Before 2026
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Elon Musk or an associated whistleblower leaks internal communications, emails, or official documents proving that the Biden White House directly intervened to prevent SpaceX from launching an early rescue mission for the stranded astronauts before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be investigative journalism reports, leaked government documents, or a consensus of credible political reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on a Political Space Controversy.
A F1 Formula 1 Team is Caught Using “Sandbagging” Tactics to Conceal True Speed Until the First Race
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that an F1 team deliberately underperforms during preseason testing, only to reveal significantly greater pace at the season opener before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be analysis from F1 data specialists, team radio leaks, or major motorsport media reports, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
A New Submarine Cable is Secretly Laid Between Taiwan and a U.S. Military Base
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Taiwan, in partnership with the United States, lays a new classified or military-backed undersea cable linking Taiwan to a U.S. military base in the Pacific before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official defense and intelligence reports, leaks from defense contractors, or high-level military disclosures, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Justin Bieber Joins an NHL Team for a Preseason Exhibition Game
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Justin Bieber officially joins an NHL team for a preseason exhibition game before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official NHL team announcements, verified sports media, or Bieber’s own statements, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Elizabeth Holmes is Featured in a New Hollywood Biopic or Netflix or any Streaming Series after her Presidential Pardon
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that a major Hollywood studio or streaming platform officially announces a new movie or series about Elizabeth Holmes and Theranos before the Event Date Close. This Prediction has two Parts and both parts of the Event Outcome must Settle to "Yes" for the Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes". Part A: Ms. Elizabeth Holmes must have received a Presidential Pardon and be released from Prison. Part B: Ms. Elizabeth Holmes is Featured in a New Hollywood Biopic or Netflix or any Streaming Series If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official studio press releases, trade publications, or streaming service announcements, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Justin Bieber Collaborates with a Major Artist on a Surprise Album Drop
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Justin Bieber releases a surprise album in 2025 featuring a collaboration with another major artist before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official music industry announcements, streaming platform releases, or statements from Bieber’s representatives, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Elizabeth Holmes Wins a Presidential Pardon Before the End of 2025
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Elizabeth Holmes is granted a presidential pardon by the U.S. president before December 31, 2025. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official statements from the White House or Justice Department, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Elizabeth Holmes Secures a Multi-Million Dollar Book, Netflix Streaming or Documentary Deal While in Prison
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Elizabeth Holmes secures a book deal or signs an agreement with a publisher or Netflix for a memoir or tell-all book or series, while still serving her prison sentence before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official publisher announcements, media interviews, or Holmes’ representatives, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source
Donald Trump Wins the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Donald Trump is awarded the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize before the official Nobel announcement date on October 11, 2025. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official statements from the Nobel Prize Committee, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
The Republican-Controlled House Introduces a Bill Cutting $500 Million from NYC Infrastructure
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives formally introduces a budget provision or bill that seeks to cut $500 million from NYC infrastructure funding as retaliation for congestion pricing before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official congressional records or legislative announcements, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
WHO Issues a Pandemic Warning for HKU5-CoV-2
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the World Health Organization (WHO) issues an official pandemic warning or categorizes HKU5-CoV-2 as a global health emergency before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official WHO statements or global health organization reports, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Russian Tu-95MS Strategic Bomber Suffers a Mid-Air Fuel Leak and is Forced to Return to Base
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that a Tu-95MS bomber develops a fuel leak mid-flight and is forced to return to base before completing its bomber run near Ukraine before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official Russian military reports or international defense monitoring agencies, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Nvidia Announces a New AI Chip Specifically Designed to Bypass U.S. Export Controls
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Nvidia develops or announces a new AI chip tailored to comply with U.S. export restrictions while still being marketable to China before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official statements from Nvidia, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Sam Bankman-Fried Meets with a Trump Administration Official
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Sam Bankman-Fried or his legal team has a direct meeting with a Trump administration official, advisor, or intermediary. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be government records, investigative journalism reports, or a consensus of credible political and legal reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on a Political Influence Effort.
Robinhood Reports a Major Crypto Theft of Over $100 Million Before 2026
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Robinhood reports a cryptocurrency theft or security breach resulting in losses exceeding $100 million before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official statements from Robinhood, regulatory filings, or a consensus of credible reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on a Cryptocurrency Security Breach.
Boeing announces the sale of Insitu Drone Unit Before 2026
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Boeing completes the sale of its Insitu drone unit to one of the listed suitors before the end of 2025. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official financial disclosures from Boeing, Insitu’s new owner, or a consensus of credible business reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
NBA Introduces Rule Changes to Reduce Three-Point Attempts Before 2026
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the NBA implements a rule change aimed at reducing the frequency of three-point attempts before the end of the 2026-27 season. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official NBA rule changes, NBA commissioner announcements, or a consensus of credible reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on a Sports League Rule Change from a credible reporting source.
Chris Murphy Launches an Official 2028 Presidential Exploratory Committee
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Senator Chris Murphy establishes a formal exploratory committee or announces his intent to run for the U.S. presidency in 2028 before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from Senator Murphy’s office, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source
AstroForge’s Odin Spacecraft Successfully Reaches Asteroid 2022 OB5
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that AstroForge’s Odin spacecraft successfully reaches asteroid 2022 OB5 and begins its planned imaging operations before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from AstroForge, NASA, SpaceX and other agencies, but a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
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