Events
Nippon Steel Walks Away from US Steel Deal
Will Nippon Steel bail on its $55-per-share bid for US Steel after Trump's tariff talk? Imagine the Japanese giant cutting ties—bet on whether Nippon will withdraw its offer before the Event Date Close. This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Nippon Steel has withdrawn its offer to purchase US Steel before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official statements from Nippon Steel or US Steel, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
President Trump Negotiates Nippon Steel Investment in US Steel
Will Trump pivot from tariffs to talks, brokering a deal for Nippon Steel to invest in US Steel without a full sale? Imagine the president playing matchmaker for steel giants—bet on whether he'll seal this investment before the Event Date Close. This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that President Trump has negotiated an investment deal between Nippon Steel and US Steel before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official statements from the White House or US Steel, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Elon Musk Reveals What Son X Said to Trump
Did Elon Musk’s toddler son X whisper a secret to Trump that’s got the internet buzzing? Bet on whether Musk will spill the beans on X’s Oval Office chatter before the Event Date Close—imagine the Tesla titan turning toddler talk into headline gold! This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Elon Musk reveals what his son X said to Donald Trump before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official statements from Elon Musk, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
China's New World Development Defaults on Debt
Will Hong Kong’s iconic New World Development crumble under the weight of its debts before the Event Date Close? With bonds in distress and assets on the block, bet on whether this real estate giant will fall! This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that New World Development has defaulted on its debt obligations before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from New World Development or financial regulators, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
China Vanke Co. Avoids Default
Will China Vanke Co., one of China's last real-estate titans, dodge the default bullet before the Event Date Close? With Beijing’s unprecedented rescue—taking operational control and eyeing a $6.8 billion lifeline—Vanke’s fighting to survive the property crisis. Bet on whether this giant stays afloat or sinks under debt’s crushing weight! This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that China Vanke Co. has not defaulted on its debt obligations before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from China Vanke Co. or Chinese regulatory bodies, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Home Sales Rebound in China
Can Xi’s stimulus firepower resurrect China’s housing market before the year’s end? After years of slump, Beijing’s betting big on a revival. Wager on whether China’s new home sales volume will surge by at least 10% year-over-year in any single month of 2025, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Will buyers storm the gates, or will the property sector stay a ghost town? Event Outcome: This bet will settle to "Yes" if official data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics confirms that the year-over-year sales volume of newly built commercial residential buildings (measured in square meters) increases by at least 10% in any single month between January and December 2025, compared to the same month in 2024. Settlement to "No": If no such increase is recorded by the Event Date Close (December 31, 2025), or if it becomes impossible for the condition to be met (e.g., data reporting ceases), the outcome will settle to "No." Primary Data Source: The official monthly or annual "National Real Estate Development and Sales" report from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), accessible at http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/. If NBS data is delayed or unavailable, a consensus of credible secondary sources (e.g., Reuters, Bloomberg, or China Real Estate Information Corp [CREIS]) reporting NBS figures may be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on Data from a credible reporting source.
First FZero Hypercar Sold by Rodin Cars
Will Rodin Cars turbocharge its legacy by selling the first FZero hypercar, a 360-mph beast born in New Zealand’s wilds? Picture a billionaire peeling out in this Batmobile lookalike—bet on whether this milestone screeches across the finish line before the Event Date Close. This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Rodin Cars has sold its first FZero hypercar before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from Rodin Cars, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Rodin Cars Enters FIA World Endurance Championship
Will David Dicker’s Rodin Cars roar into the FIA World Endurance Championship, trading F1 dreams for endurance glory? Imagine the Kiwi backcountry buzzing as Dicker’s machines hit the global stage—bet on whether Rodin Cars will officially enter a car in the championship before the Event Date Close. This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Rodin Cars has entered a car in the FIA World Endurance Championship before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from the FIA or Rodin Cars, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Will Judge Rogers Reverse Course and Freeze OpenAI's For-Profit Dreams?
After slamming the brakes on Elon Musk’s initial plea, will Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers stun the tech world by flipping the script and greenlighting his injunction to stop OpenAI’s for-profit pivot before the Event Date Close? Bet on whether this legal twist keeps OpenAI’s nonprofit soul intact! This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers has reversed her initial decision and granted Elon Musk's request for a preliminary injunction to halt OpenAI's restructuring before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official court documents or statements from the involved parties, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on a Court Ruling from a credible reporting source.
Will SpaceX Announce a Crewed Mars Mission by 2025
Elon Musk’s got Trump’s ear and Mars in his sights—will SpaceX steal NASA’s thunder? Bet on whether SpaceX announces a crewed Mars mission before the Event Date Close, leaving Artemis in the lunar dust. Could Musk’s Red Planet dreams blast off sooner than we think? This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that SpaceX has announced a crewed mission to Mars before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from SpaceX, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Will the US 2yr to 10yr Yield Curve Invert for 30 Days?
The yield curve inversion has everyone talking—is it a recession red flag or just a false alarm? Bet on whether the 2-year Treasury yield will stay higher than the 10-year yield for 30 days at any time before the end of 2025. Will the bond market’s mood swing hold, or will it flip back to normal? This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if the US 2-year to 10-year yield curve remains inverted (2-year yield > 10-year yield) for an entire 30-day period after the event starts. If the yield curve uninverts at any point during that time, the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from the US Department of the Treasury, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Instant Coffee Wins on The View's Blind Taste Test by end of 2025?
The View is known for its lively segments and celebrity guests. Will they feature a blind taste test between premium instant coffee such as Swift Coffee or Cometeer and freshly-brewed coffee, and will the instant coffee impress the panel and audience? Bet on whether instant coffee will be declared the winner on The View before the Event Date Close. This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that a premium instant coffee has won a blind taste test against freshly-brewed coffee on The View before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from The View or ABC, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Swift Coffee teams Up with Starbucks by end of 2025?
Swift Coffee is already partnering with well-known roasters, but could they score a deal with the biggest fish in the pond? Bet on whether Swift will announce a partnership with Starbucks to produce an instant coffee line before the Event Date Close. Imagine your favorite Starbucks blend, just add water! This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Swift Coffee has partnered with Starbucks for an instant coffee product before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from Swift Coffee or Starbucks, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Amorim’s Last Stand: Will Manchester United Sack Their Manager Before 2025 Ends?
Ruben Amorim’s hot seat is sizzling as Manchester United’s losses pile up and fans chant for change. With a $14.5 million price tag to hire him, will the club cut its losses again? Bet on whether United will axe their manager before the 2025 curtain falls! This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Ruben Amorim has been sacked as Manchester United’s manager before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from Manchester United, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Manchester United’s Premier League Bounce-Back: Will They Finish in the Top 6 by 2025?
Manchester United is crumbling, stuck in 14th place with a squad thinner than a paper towel. But could a new manager and some financial magic spark a miracle? Bet on whether United will claw their way into the Premier League’s top 6 by the end of the 2025 season—a feat fans are dying to see! This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Manchester United has finished in the top 6 of the Premier League in the 2025 season before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from the Premier League, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Will MLB Cap Salaries Before 2026? Baseball's Billion-Dollar Question:
With the Dodgers’ payroll soaring to nearly $400 million, the debate over baseball’s economic system is heating up. Teams like the Diamondbacks and Padres are struggling to keep pace without a salary cap. Will MLB announce a plan to implement a salary cap before the end of 2025? This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Major League Baseball has announced a plan to implement a salary cap before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from Major League Baseball, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Padres Power Play: New Owner to Steer San Diego's Ship by 2025?
The San Diego Padres are navigating choppy waters with ownership disputes and financial recalibrations. After the passing of owner Peter Seidler, the team is in flux. Will a new controlling owner emerge to guide the Padres before the end of 2025? This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that a new controlling owner for the San Diego Padres has been announced before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from the San Diego Padres or MLB, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Dodgers Dynasty: Will LA's $400M Juggernaut Crush the NL West Again in 2025?
The Los Angeles Dodgers have dominated the NL West, winning it 11 times in the last 12 seasons. With a record payroll nearing $400 million, they’re the team to beat. But can the upstart Diamondbacks or the Padres dethrone them? Bet on whether the Dodgers will clinch the division title once more in 2025. This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the Los Angeles Dodgers have won the NL West division in the 2025 MLB season before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from Major League Baseball, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Alex Cooper's NWSL Game Attendance
Will the "Gen Z whisperer" Alex Cooper grace at least 10 NWSL games with her presence during the 2025 season? Bet on whether Cooper will be spotted at enough matches to make her sponsorship deal shine—imagine her sipping Unwell Hydration sideline with fans chanting her name! This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Alex Cooper has attended at least 10 NWSL games during the 2025 season before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from the NWSL or Unwell Hydration, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
FDA to Tighten Grip on Abortion Pills?
Will cave to Republican pressure and slam the brakes on easy access to abortion pills? Imagine the showdown as he could roll back Biden’s telemedicine policy—bet on whether the FDA will restrict these pills before the Event Date Close. This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the FDA has restricted access to abortion pills, such as reinstating the in-person dispensing requirement, before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from the FDA, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
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