Events
Canadian referendum about joining The United States and becoming the 51st State.
This Event Outcome will be settled as "Yes” if Canada announces that it will have a public referendum, or question on a Federal Election Ballot about joining The United States and becoming the 51st State anytime before the Event Close Date. If it becomes impossible for Canada to have this question as a Referendum on a national election ballot then this Event Outcome will settle to “No”. The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from The Federal Government of Canada, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement regarding the planned Referendum and not the formalization and execution of Parliamentary and Congressional approval.
Elon Musk confirms that The US Government has determined the existence of Alien life outside of Planet Earth
This Event Outcome will be settled as "Yes”, if Elon Musk “Alone”, as a Representative of The United States Government, confirms that the US Government has determined the existence of Alien Life outside of Planet Earth before the Event Close Date. If it becomes impossible for Elon Musk, alone, to confirm that the US Government has determined the existence of Alien life outside of Planet Earth, then the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". Definition of Alone: A tweet on x.com Conversation with a reporter Excludes a press conference or group setting with any members of the US Administration including but not limited to President Donald Trump. The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from The US Government and Elon Musk as the sole Representative of The Untied States Government, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on the Announcement by Elon Musk, and no one else regarding Alien Life as Defined:
President Trump confirms that the US Government has confirmed the existence of Alien life outside of Planet Earth
This Event Outcome will be settled as "Yes”, if President Trump “Alone”, confirms that the US Government has determined the existence of Alien Life outside of Planet Earth before the Event Close Date. If it becomes impossible for President Trump, alone, to confirm that the US Government has determined the existence of Alien life outside of Planet Earth, then the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". Definition of Alone: Conversation with a reporter Excludes a press conference or group setting with any members of the US Administration including but not limited to Elon Musk. The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from President Trump as the sole Representative of The Untied States Government, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on the Announcement by President Trump, and no one else regarding Alien Life as Defined.
Jake Paul hangs up his gloves and gets a role in the movies
This Event Outcome will be settled as "Yes" if Jake Paul or a credible reporting source confirms that he has secured a star or supporting role in a Hollywood movie before the Event Close Date. This precedent is based on Dwayne Johnson's transition from the WWE to Hollywood and retiring from contact sports. The primary source for confirmation will be official information from Jake Paul; however, a consensus from credible reporting sources may also be considered. This Event Outcome is a prediction based on the announcement from a credible reporting source.
Number of Employees at IRS drop below 50,000
This Event Outcome will be settled as "Yes”, if any Agency or Representative of The US Government confirms that the number of full time non-contract employees at the Internal Revenue Service has dropped below 50,000 on or before the Event Close Date. . The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from President Trump, Elon Musk or a duly appointed Representative of The Untied States Government, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement by a credible reporting source.
Taylor Swift puts her Rhode Island Home up for sale known as Holiday House.
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if credible reporting source confirms that Taylor Swift lists for sale her Rhode Island Home for sale known as Holiday House before the Event Close Date. If it becomes impossible for Taylor Swift to list this Property for Sale then the Event Outcome will settle to No. The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from Taylor Swift but a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on the Announcement from a credible reporting source.
South Bow Corp spun off from TC Energy Corp decides to resuscitate Keystone Pipeline
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that South Bow Corp spun off from TC Energy Corp decides to restart the Keystone Pipeline Project on or before the Event Close Date. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from South Bow Corp, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
NBA Championship
This Event Outcome will Settle to “Yes” if the team selected wins the 2024-2025 NBA Championship. Otherwise, this Event Outcome will resolve to “No”. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from the NBA.
Kamala Harris and Doug Emhoff announce that they are separated
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Kamala Harris and Doug Emhoff announce that they are separated anytime before the Event Close Date. Otherwise, this Event Outcome will Settle to "No". If it becomes impossible for Kamala Harris and Doug Emhoff to become officially or unofficially separated, this Event Outcome will settle to No. The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from Kamala Harris and Doug Emhoff, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement by a credible reporting source.
Who will win the Stanley Cup for the 2024-2025 season?
This Event Outcome shall Settle to “Yes” if the Team wins the 2024–2025 Stanley Cup. Otherwise, it shall Settle to “No.” Furthermore, if it becomes impossible for the Team to win the 2024–2025 Stanley Cup under NHL rules, the Event Outcome shall Settle to “No.” Official information from the NHL will serve as the source for determining the Settlement outcome.
Winner for the 2024-2025 UEFA Champions League
This Event Outcome will Settle to “Yes” if a team wins the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League. Otherwise, this Event Outcome will Settle to “No”. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2024-2025 UEFA Champions League based on the rules of the tournament (e.g. they are eliminated), this Event Outcome will Settle immediately to “No”.
Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by before the Event Close Date. Otherwise, this Event Outcome will Settle to "No". If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this Event's timeframe, it may immediately Settle to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the Convicted Felon is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government.
President Trumps announces a new Nimitz-class aircraft carrier
This Event Outcome will be settled as "Yes”, if President Trump, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth or a duly appointed representative of The United States Government, confirms plans to build a new Nimitz-class aircraft carrier before the Event Close Date. The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from Agencies of The United States Government, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement by a credible reporting source.
California Gov Gavin Newsom Resigns Santa Ynez Reservoir bone dry.
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that California Gov Gavin Newsom has resigned by or before the Event Close Date. Resignation can take the form of leaving for Personal Reason which is “undefined". Nonetheless, leaving for "Personal Reason" would qualify as a resignation and thus would still Settle to a “Yes”. However, if it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from The State of California however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on the Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Putin Resigns
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if credible reporting sources confirm that Vladimir Putin no longer holds the position of President or Prime Minister in Russia before the Event Close Date. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The default Settlement to the Event Outcome is "Yes" if there is any change in the current status. The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from the Government of Russia, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
RF Kennedy Jr Donald Trump bans fluoride in drinking water
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes", if an Agency of The United States Government announces and or specifically The US Department Health and Human Services, known as hhs.gov enacts a ban on fluoride in drinking water on or before the Event Close Date. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from Agencies of The United States Government, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement by a credible reporting source.
Trump nominated for Nobel Peace Prize
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that President Donald Trump has been nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize on or before the Event Close Date. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from The Nobel Foundation, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting
Prince Harry and Meghan Markle move back to England ran out of money
This Event Outcome will be settled as "Yes” if credible reporting sources announce and or confirm that Prince Harry and Meghan Markle have decided to move back to England on or before the Event Close Date. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from The British Royal Family, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used.. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Mayor Karen Bass Resigns due to fire budget cut in Los Angeles
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Mayor Karen Bass of Los Angeles has resigned by or before the Event Close Date. Resignation can take the form of leaving for Personal Reason which is “undefined". Nonetheless, leaving for "Personal Reason" would qualify as a resignation and thus would still Settle to a “Yes”. However, if it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from The City of Los Angeles, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on the Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Confirmed Cases of H5 bird flu in The United States exceed 10,000.
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes", if an Agency of The United States Government announces or specifically the CDC (Center for Disease Control) confirms that the number Cases of H5 bird flu in The United States has exceeded 10,000 on or before the Event Close Date. The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from Agencies of The United States Government, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement by a credible reporting source.
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