Events
LeBron James Announces His Retirement in June 2025
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that LeBron James officially announces his retirement from professional basketball in the month of June 2025. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from LeBron James, his representatives, or the NBA, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Cleveland Cavaliers Upset Boston Celtics in Eastern Conference Finals
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the Cleveland Cavaliers defeat the Boston Celtics in the 2025 Eastern Conference Finals before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from the NBA, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Los Angeles Lakers Defy History and Win the 2025 NBA Championship
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Championship before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from the NBA, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Major Cruise Line Reports a Large Norovirus Outbreak Before September 2025
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that another major cruise line (such as Royal Caribbean, Carnival, or Norwegian) experiences a norovirus outbreak affecting at least 50 passengers before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be CDC reports, cruise industry tracking sites, or a consensus of credible health and travel reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Holland America Announces Cancellation of at Least One Cruise Due to Norovirus Before August 2025
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Holland America cancels at least one scheduled cruise departure due to norovirus-related concerns before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official Holland America announcements, cruise industry reports, or a consensus of credible travel and health reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Private Space Company Proposes a Plan to Deflect Asteroid 2024 YR4 Before October 2025
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that a private space company (such as SpaceX, Blue Origin, or Rocket Lab) formally announces a plan to deflect asteroid 2024 YR4 before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be space company press releases, scientific proposals, or a consensus of credible technology reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Trump Administration Cancels the $590 Million Moderna Bird Flu Vaccine Contract Before the end of August 2025
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the Trump administration formally revokes or cancels the $590 million federal contract awarded to Moderna for bird flu vaccine development before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be U.S. government announcements, Moderna corporate filings, or a consensus of credible business and political reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Greenpeace Declares Bankruptcy Following the Trial Verdict Before October 2025
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Greenpeace officially files for bankruptcy or publicly announces financial insolvency before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be Greenpeace’s official statements, financial disclosures, or a consensus of credible environmental and legal reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Greenpeace Is Ordered to Pay Over $100 Million in Damages Before August 2025
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Greenpeace is found liable and ordered to pay at least $100 million in damages to Energy Transfer before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be court rulings, legal filings, or a consensus of credible news reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on a Major Financial Penalty for Greenpeace.
Luka Doncic and LeBron James Combine for 75+ Points in a Single Playoff Game Before May 2025
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Luka Doncic and LeBron James combine to score at least 75 points in a single playoff game before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official NBA game statistics, game recaps, or a consensus of credible sports reporting sources.
A “40-20” Team Gets Eliminated in the First Round of the Playoffs Before May 2025
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that one of the three "40-20 Rule" teams (Boston Celtics, Oklahoma City Thunder, or Cleveland Cavaliers) is eliminated in the first round of the NBA Playoffs before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be NBA playoff results, game recaps. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
A Team Outside the “40-20” Rule Wins the NBA Championship Before June 2025
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that a team that did not reach 40 wins before 20 losses goes on to win the NBA championship before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be NBA Finals results and team statistics. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
North Korea Announces Plans to Launch Its Own Digital Currency Before May 2025
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that North Korea officially announces or begins testing its own state-backed digital currency (CBDC) as an alternative to existing cryptocurrencies before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be North Korean government statements, blockchain tracking research, or a consensus of credible geopolitical and cryptocurrency reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source
Tesla Officially Classifies the US Government as a "Related Party" in any 8K 10Q or similar Financial Disclosures Before June 2025
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Tesla formally identifies the U.S. government as a "related party" in any SEC filings or financial disclosures before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be Tesla’s SEC filings, earnings reports, or a consensus of credible financial reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source
US Home Prices Drop in March 2025 for the First Time in Over a Year
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the average U.S. home price declines in March 2025 compared to the previous month, marking the first monthly drop in over a year. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official reports from the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index, National Association of Realtors, or a consensus of credible real estate reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source
South Korea Announces an Emergency Presidential Election Before May 2025
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that South Korea’s election commission announces an early presidential election before the Event Date Close due to Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment or resignation. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official South Korean government announcements, election commission rulings, or a consensus of credible political reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
London Mayor Sadiq Khan Takes Legal Action Against Heathrow’s Third Runway Before May 2025
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the Mayor of London or the Greater London Authority files a legal challenge or joins a lawsuit against the Heathrow third runway project before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be legal filings, mayoral office statements, or a consensus of credible political and environmental reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
US Government Issues Sanctions Against Romanian Officials Over Election Interference Before June 2025
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the U.S. government imposes sanctions on Romanian politicians, government officials, or individuals involved in the presidential election controversy before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be U.S. government statements, Treasury Department filings, or a consensus of credible foreign policy reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Calin Georgescu Is Arrested Before Romania’s Presidential Election in May 2025
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Calin Georgescu is formally arrested or detained by Romanian authorities before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be Romanian government announcements, legal filings, or a consensus of credible political reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Trump Officially Reverses the SALT Cap Before the 2026 Midterms
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Donald Trump successfully signs legislation or issues an executive order eliminating the $10,000 SALT cap before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". Definition of SALT and related terms: https://bipartisanpolicy.org/explainer/how-salt-may-shake-up-the-2025-tax-debate/ The primary source for this Event Outcome will be government records, legislative filings, or a consensus of credible financial and political reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
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