Events
Audit Bombshell: Fort Knox Gold Overcounted 5% in Secret!
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that an audit of Fort Knox, completed before December 31, 2025, finds that the gold reserves are overstated by at least 5%—roughly 7.365 million ounces—due to undisclosed errors or fraud. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official statements from the U.S. Department of the Treasury or congressional oversight committees, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Trump Forces Zelenskyy Out with Peace Deal Before July 1st!
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Volodymyr Zelenskyy is no longer Ukraine’s president due to a U.S.-brokered peace agreement with Russia, signed under President Trump’s influence, before July 1, 2025. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official statements from the White House or Ukrainian government, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
China Launches Full-Scale Taiwan Invasion Before Trump’s Summer Reset!
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that China initiates a full-scale military invasion of Taiwan, involving ground troops landing on Taiwanese soil, before July 1, 2025. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official statements from the Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense or the U.S. Department of Defense, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Booz Allen Hamilton Collapses After DOGE Cuts All Contracts
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Booz Allen Hamilton files for bankruptcy or ceases operations due to the complete termination of its U.S. government contracts by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official statements from Booz Allen Hamilton or bankruptcy filings, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
MLB Star Attacks Robot Umpire in Spring Training Meltdown
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that a Major League Baseball player physically attacks or damages equipment related to the Automated Ball-Strike System (e.g., cameras, sensors, or iPads) during a spring training game before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official statements from MLB or video evidence reviewed by the league, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Pitcher Loses MLB Roster Spot After Botched Robot Challenges
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that an MLB pitcher is demoted to the minors or released from a team roster explicitly due to repeatedly unsuccessful challenges of the Automated Ball-Strike System during spring training before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official team announcements or MLB roster updates, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
President Trump and Elon Musk Sell The US Postal Service to FedEx or UPS
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the Trump administration announces a sale of the US Postal Service to FedEx or UPS, transferring ownership or operational control, before the Event Date Close. This does not refer to the Close of the Transaction or Congressional Approval which may be required. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official statements from the White House or FedEx, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Elon Musk’s Efficiency Team Shuts Down Entire HUD Agency
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) is entirely eliminated or consolidated into another agency by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official statements from HUD or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Kings Court Capital Sells Suzuki Stake as BYD Dominates Asia Market
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Kings Court Capital reduces or sells its Suzuki Motor Corp. stake for any reason one of which may be due to BYD Co.’s electric vehicle dominance impacting Suzuki’s market share in Asia before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official statements from Kings Court Capital, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Suzuki Overtakes Tesla in India Market Unit Sales
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Suzuki’s India unit surpasses Tesla Inc. in total vehicle unit sales within the India market for a single month before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official sales data from Suzuki Motor Corp.’s India unit and Tesla Inc., however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
William Shatner Returns to Space on Blue Origin’s New Shepard at Age 94
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that William Shatner, previously the oldest person to travel to space at age 90 in October 2021, announces his intention to fly again into space on Blue Origin’s New Shepard rocket at age 94 before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from Blue Origin, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Jeff Bezos Joins Lauren Sánchez on the All-Women Blue Origin Flight
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Jeff Bezos joins his fiancée Lauren Sánchez on the all-women Blue Origin flight, altering its original all-women designation, before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from Blue Origin, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Will Smith and Jada Pinkett Smith Announce Divorce or Separation Before end of August 2025
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Will Smith and Jada Pinkett Smith officially announce their divorce before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official court filings, announcements from either party, or major news sources covering celebrity relationships, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Richard Gere and Alejandra Silva Announce They Are Expecting Another Child
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Richard Gere and his wife, Alejandra Silva, announce that they are expecting another child before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official announcements from Richard Gere, Alejandra Silva, or news reports from major entertainment publications, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Texas Lawmakers Introduce Emergency Vaccine Mandate in Response to Measles Outbreak
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Texas lawmakers introduce an emergency vaccine mandate bill in response to the ongoing measles outbreak before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official legislative filings, press releases from Texas state officials, or major political news reports, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Under Armour CEO Kevin Plank Sells His Maryland Horse Farm for Less Than $20 Million
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Under Armour CEO Kevin Plank sells his Maryland horse farm for less than $20 million before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official property sale records, listing agent confirmations, or business news reports, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Mr. Beast Officially Secures a $5 Billion Plus Valuation for His Company
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Mr. Beast successfully secures investor funding that values his company at greater than $5 billion before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from MrBeast or the investment firms involved, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Mr. Beast’s Feastables Becomes the #1 Best-Selling Chocolate Brand in the U.S in any month in the next 12 months
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that MrBeast’s chocolate brand, Feastables, surpasses Hershey’s and other competitors to become the #1 best-selling chocolate brand in the U.S. before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official market research reports or major business publications, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Starbucks Announces Plan to add Humanoid Robot Baristas
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Starbucks announces an official plan to add humanoid robots to function as Baristas before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from Starbucks, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Amazon Labor Union (ALU) Files Lawsuit Against Amazon on Over Humanoid Robot Workers in warehouses
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Amazon Labor Union (ALU), with or without the International Brotherhood of Teamsters has Filed a Lawsuit Against Amazon on Humanoid Robot Workers in warehouses before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from labor unions or court filings, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
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