Events
Christopher McQuarrie Nabs Best Director Nomination at 98th Oscars
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences includes Christopher McQuarrie on its official list of nominees for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards (honoring 2025 releases) before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be the Academy’s nomination press release or Oscars.com, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Car and Driver Clocks Vantage Roadster’s 0‑60 MPH at ≤ 3.40 Seconds
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Car and Driver (print or online) publishes instrumented test results showing a 0‑60 mph time of 3.40 seconds or faster for the 2025 Aston Martin Vantage Roadster before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be Car and Driver’s official road‑test data, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Aston Martin Begins 2025 Vantage Roadster Customer Deliveries
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that at least one retail customer (non‑press, non‑dealer) takes delivery of a 2025 Aston Martin Vantage Roadster anywhere in the world before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from Aston Martin Lagonda, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Novo Nordisk Announces Paid Partnership With Janelle Rohner
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Novo Nordisk publicly names Janelle Rohner as a compensated partner, ambassador, or spokesperson in any marketing or educational initiative related to its GLP‑1 drugs before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from Novo Nordisk, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
PepsiCo Announces Nationwide Uniform Pricing Policy in 2025
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that PepsiCo issues a public statement or SEC filing announcing a formal nationwide uniform pricing policy for its U.S. beverage products before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from PepsiCo, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Jacob deGrom Touches 100 MPH Again in 2025
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Jacob deGrom records at least one pitch measured at 100.0 mph or higher during any 2025 MLB regular‑season or postseason game before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official Statcast data published by MLB, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Mission Impossible 8 Surpasses USD 800 Million Worldwide Gross
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that worldwide grosses for the film have reached or exceeded USD 800 million before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from Paramount Pictures, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
NFL Owners Ban the ‘Tush Push’ Play for the 2026 Season
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that NFL owners have approved a rule change banning the “tush push” (also known as the “Brotherly Shove”) for the 2026 season before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from the NFL, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
How big will the Tariffs on iPhones be on June 30, 2025
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that The United States Government has placed a Tariff as of the Event Date Close in the amount predicted. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be The United States Government or a consensus of credible technology reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Tinder Age Typo: Ryan Mackenzie Issues Public Apology for Tinder Age Deception
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Congressman Mackenzie makes a formal, public apology for the Tinder age typo and deception before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be an official statement from Rep. Mackenzie (press release, campaign website, or verified social‑media post); however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Deleted Tinder‑Scandal Paragraph Restored to Ryan Mackenzie’s Wikipedia Page
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if the deleted paragraph (or substantially similar wording about the Tinder scandal) is reinstated on the publicly accessible version of Ryan Mackenzie’s English‑language Wikipedia page before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be the edit history and live content of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryan_Mackenzie; reliable secondary coverage may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on publicly verifiable digital records.
Rangers Ink Mikael Granlund to Bolster Middle‑Six Scoring
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the New York Rangers have signed Mikael Granlund to an NHL contract before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from the New York Rangers or the NHL’s transaction wire, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
S&P Revises U.S. Sovereign Outlook
S&P last affirmed America’s AA+ / Stable standing on March 27th, 2024 This Event Outcome will Settle to “Yes” if S&P Global Ratings publicly announces that it has revised the long‑term sovereign outlook for the United States from “Stable” to a New Status before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to “Yes,” the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to “No.” The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official releases from S&P Global Ratings, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
30‑Year Treasury Yield Holds Above 5.50 % for Five Straight Days
This Event Outcome will Settle to “Yes” if Refinitiv or Bloomberg data confirm that the U.S. 30‑year Treasury benchmark yield settles ≥ 5.50 % on five straight trading days before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to “Yes,” the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to “No.” The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official Treasury yield data, however a consensus of credible reporting sources (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters) may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Federal Reserve Adds Bitcoin to Its Balance Sheet Reserves
This Event Outcome will Settle to “Yes” if a credible reporting source confirms that the Federal Reserve’s weekly balance‑sheet publication (Statistical Release H.4.1) lists Bitcoin as an asset held by the System Open Market Account before the Event Date Close. This is separate from the U.S. government, through an Executive Order, which has created a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, this reserve is distinct from the Federal Reserve and its balance sheet. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to “Yes”, the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to “No”. The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Trump Issues Executive Order to Re‑Introduce a Gold‑Backed U.S. Dollar
This Event Outcome will Settle to “Yes” if a credible reporting source confirms that the President has signed and published an executive order (or presidential memorandum) explicitly directing the U.S. Treasury to peg the U.S. dollar to gold before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to “Yes”, the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to “No”. The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from the White House or the Federal Register; however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
House Passes Vow‑of‑Poverty Exemption in Expat Tax Bill for the New Pope Leo XIV
Will Congress carve out a “Papal clause” before recess? Will the House of Representatives pass a bill that exempts vow‑of‑poverty clergy abroad from filing U.S. returns to accommodate the new US born Pope Leo XIV? This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if the U.S. House of Representatives passes legislation that includes an explicit income‑tax filing exemption for vow‑of‑poverty clergy living abroad before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The tabling of legislation but not passing may Settle immediately the Event Outcome to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be the official congressional record; however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on a Legislative Passage.
Edible “Sausage” Robot Demonstrates In‑Vivo Surgery in Peer‑Reviewed Journal
This Event Outcome will Settle to “Yes” if a reputable peer‑reviewed journal (e.g., Science Robotics, Nature Biomedical Engineering) publishes an article that documents in‑vivo deployment of the edible robot performing a surgical or diagnostic function prior to the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to “Yes”, the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to “No”. The primary source for this Event Outcome will be the journal publication; however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on a Scientific Publication.
Neodymium‑Praseodymium Oxide Spot Price Falls 10 %+ from 15 May 2025 Level
This Event Outcome will Settle to “Yes” if the assessed cash spot price of Neodymium‑Praseodymium (NdPr) oxide drops 10 % or more below its 15 May 2025 close of $53,176.25 USD/mt (excluding VAT) at any time before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to “Yes”, the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to “No”. The primary source for this Event Outcome will be the referenced benchmark price publishers; however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on a Commodity Price Movement.
Tesla Secures Chinese Magnet License for Optimus Robot Components
This Event Outcome will Settle to “Yes” if Tesla Inc. (or a wholly‑owned subsidiary) publicly discloses that it has received an export license from China covering rare‑earth magnets or magnet assemblies intended for the Optimus robot or any other component in the Elon Musk Corporate related companies at any time before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to “Yes”, the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to “No”. The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official Tesla statements or SEC filings; however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on a Corporate Regulatory Approval.