Will Anthropic price its IPO at a $1.5 trillion+ valuation by December 31, 2026?

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• This event resolves YES if, between Nov 9, 2026 and 11:59 PM ET Dec 31, 2026, Anthropic officially prices its IPO at an implied fully diluted valuation of $1.5 trillion USD or more.
  
• This event resolves NO if the IPO is priced below $1.5T or not priced by the deadline (incl. postponement, withdrawal, or a direct listing/non-IPO route).
  
• 1. Specificity: Valuation = final IPO price x fully diluted shares: all classes of common stock outstanding after the offering plus outstanding options (counted in full, no treasury method), RSUs, warrants and convertibles. Excludes the greenshoe and unallocated equity-plan reserves. Exactly $1.5T is YES; no rounding ($1.49T is NO). If repriced/upsized, final official pricing counts.
  
• 2. Exclusion: Price ranges, valuation talk, first-day trading/market cap, grey-market prices and private rounds do not count.
  
• 3. Source Hierarchy: The calculation from Anthropic's 424(b) final prospectus on SEC EDGAR decides. If unavailable, the fully diluted valuation reported by Reuters or Bloomberg; then their headline IPO valuation. CNBC/WSJ/FT tertiary.
  
• 4. Timing: Pricing must occur before 11:59 PM ET Dec 31, 2026 (04:59 UTC Jan 1, 2027); later resolves NO. Betting closes at the earliest of: first report of the final price by Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, WSJ or FT; the official pricing announcement; or the deadline.
  
• 5. Cancellation Rule: An IPO officially priced before the deadline counts even if later withdrawn before trading.
  

Data Source for Event Outcome

• You can dispute the decision within 7 days after the settlement; to do so, write to our technical support by email and telegram.
  
• The Primary Resolution Data for this Event Outcome may be published on one of the following sites:
  
• https://www.bloomberg.com/
  
• https://www.reuters.com/
  
• https://www.wsj.com
  

Resolution

• Resolution ID: cmw9glp5t3ldq01lqva8pltyz