Will George R.R. Martin officially release a new Winds of Winter chapter before 2028?
$33,666 Vol. 415d 4h left
Description No new Winds of Winter sample chapter has been officially published in text form in about a decade. In Jan 2026 Martin reported ~1,100 finished manuscript pages; in Apr 2026 Bantam denied a viral rumor the book was done. It still has no release date.
- This event resolves YES if, between Nov 11, 2026 and Dec 31, 2027 23:59 UTC, Martin, his publisher (Bantam/Penguin Random House, Voyager/HarperCollins), his estate, or an officially authorized outlet publicly releases the full text of at least one complete Winds of Winter chapter never before officially published in text. Release of the full novel also resolves YES.
- This event resolves NO if no such release occurs by the deadline.
- 1. Specificity: A 'complete chapter' is text Martin/publisher presents as a full chapter (typically under a POV heading). Chapters previously only read aloud are eligible once published in full text. Text must be accessible to the general public (free or purchasable by anyone), in any language. Split releases count when the final part is out.
- 2. Exclusion: Re-releases of previously published chapters; material labeled excerpt, teaser, or partial; readings/audio/video without full official text; leaks; unofficial transcripts; content restricted to backers, event attendees, or closed groups; announcements without the text released.
- 3. Source Hierarchy: georgerrmartin.com/Not A Blog and official publisher announcements priority. Credible media (AP, NYT, Variety, The Hollywood Reporter) secondary. Martin's official social accounts tertiary. If ambiguous, Martin/publisher labeling decides.
- 4. Timing: Must occur before Dec 31, 2027 23:59 UTC. Post-deadline resolves NO. Market may close early once YES is confirmed.
- 5. Cancellation Rule: Announcement alone resolves NO. If released then removed before deadline, resolves YES based on first release date.
Data Source for Event Outcome
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Resolution
- Resolution ID: cmwccj7ft0lsm01pcp9hqnpkp