Events
Neodymium‑Praseodymium Oxide Spot Price Falls 10 %+ from 15 May 2025 Level
This Event Outcome will Settle to “Yes” if the assessed cash spot price of Neodymium‑Praseodymium (NdPr) oxide drops 10 % or more below its 15 May 2025 close of $53,176.25 USD/mt (excluding VAT) at any time before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to “Yes”, the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to “No”. The primary source for this Event Outcome will be the referenced benchmark price publishers; however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on a Commodity Price Movement.
Tesla Secures Chinese Magnet License for Optimus Robot Components
This Event Outcome will Settle to “Yes” if Tesla Inc. (or a wholly‑owned subsidiary) publicly discloses that it has received an export license from China covering rare‑earth magnets or magnet assemblies intended for the Optimus robot or any other component in the Elon Musk Corporate related companies at any time before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to “Yes”, the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to “No”. The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official Tesla statements or SEC filings; however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on a Corporate Regulatory Approval.
Virgin Galactic to Reveal New Ticket Price Above $1mm
Virgin Galactic paused sales at $600 k a seat in 2024—will the comeback price rocket past $1 million before launch-day buzz cools? This Event Outcome will Settle to “Yes” if a credible reporting source confirms that Virgin Galactic publicly sets a new passenger ticket price at or above $1 million at any time before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to “Yes”, the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to “No”. The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from Virgin Galactic; however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Nvidia to Report Over $45 Billion in Q1 Revenue
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if Nvidia reports quarterly revenue greater than $45 billion for the fiscal quarter ending April 2025, as part of its earnings release on or after May 28, 2025. If Nvidia postpones or cancels the earnings release without rescheduling within 7 days of the original date, the Event Outcome may Settle to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be Nvidia's official earnings release, but verification from credible financial news outlets will also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on a Financial Reported Metric.
Nvidia to Overtake Microsoft as World's Most Valuable Company
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if Nvidia's market capitalization surpasses Microsoft's at any point before the Event Date Close If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be real-time stock market capitalization data, but consensus financial reporting may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on Market Capitalization Ranking.
UnitedHealth Group Inc drops below $100 by end of year
UnitedHealth Group Inc drops below $100 by end of year excluding share splits as reported by NYSE. Context: The U.S. Department of Justice has launched a criminal investigation into UnitedHealth’s Medicare Advantage practices. Very few companies survive a Criminial Investigation by the Department of Justice. Arthur Anderson is a recent example. This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that UnitedHealth Group Inc drops below $100 by end of year. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from the closing price any day as reported by the NYSE. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on a Price Movement.
Capture of Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Confirmed
Will Mexican authorities finally apprehend Iván Archivaldo Guzmán, Mexico’s most elusive drug kingpin? Guzmán has repeatedly evaded capture through sophisticated tunnels and extensive support networks. This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms Iván Archivaldo Guzmán's capture by Mexican or U.S. authorities before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official statements from the Mexican government, U.S. government, or consensus from reputable news sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Argentinian Primera Division 2025
Argentinian Primera Division 2025
Mexican Primera League 2024-2025
Mexican Primera League 2024-2025
Australian A-League 2024-2025
Australian A-League 2024-2025
U.S. Raises Bounty for Iván Archivaldo Guzmán
Will the U.S. government publicly announce an increase to the existing $10 million bounty for the capture of Iván Archivaldo Guzmán? This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source officially confirms an increase in the bounty by U.S. authorities before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official U.S. government statements or reputable news sources confirming the increase. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on Governmental Action and Public Announcement.
Mikal Bridges Hits a Game-Winning Shot
Will Mikal Bridges, known for his defense, deliver a game-winning shot for the Knicks in a playoff game? This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Mikal Bridges scores the final basket that gives the Knicks the lead for good in a playoff game before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be NBA official stats, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
NFL 2025
NFL 2025
Dallas Mavericks Draft Cooper Flagg with No. 1 Pick
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the Dallas Mavericks have selected Cooper Flagg with the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from the NBA, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Jokic Wins 2025 NBA Finals MVP
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if Nikola Jokic is named the 2025 NBA Finals MVP before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official NBA Finals MVP announcements, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on the NBA Finals MVP award.
Pope Leo XIV Attends a White Sox Game
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Pope Leo XIV has attended or plans to attend a White Sox Game before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from the White Sox or the Vatican, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement for a plan to Attend a MLB White Sox Game from a credible reporting source.
Hong-Kong Premier League 2024-2025
Hong-Kong Premier League 2024-2025
Brazilian Serie A 2025
Brazilian Serie A 2025
Ecuadorian Serie A 2025
Ecuadorian Serie A 2025
American Major League Soccer 2025
American Major League Soccer 2025
Other
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