Events
Nvidia Announces a New AI Chip Specifically Designed to Bypass U.S. Export Controls
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Nvidia develops or announces a new AI chip tailored to comply with U.S. export restrictions while still being marketable to China before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official statements from Nvidia, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
FDA Expands Ozempic Approval for New Indication
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) officially approves Ozempic (semaglutide) for a new medical indication beyond type 2 diabetes before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official announcements from the FDA or Novo Nordisk, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source
Madonna and Akeem Morris Make Their Red Carpet Debut as a Couple
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Madonna and Akeem Morris attend a red carpet event together and pose for official photographs before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be major entertainment news outlets, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Sam Bankman-Fried Meets with a Trump Administration Official
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Sam Bankman-Fried or his legal team has a direct meeting with a Trump administration official, advisor, or intermediary. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be government records, investigative journalism reports, or a consensus of credible political and legal reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on a Political Influence Effort.
Robinhood Reports a Major Crypto Theft of Over $100 Million Before 2026
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Robinhood reports a cryptocurrency theft or security breach resulting in losses exceeding $100 million before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official statements from Robinhood, regulatory filings, or a consensus of credible reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on a Cryptocurrency Security Breach.
Boeing announces the sale of Insitu Drone Unit Before 2026
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Boeing completes the sale of its Insitu drone unit to one of the listed suitors before the end of 2025. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official financial disclosures from Boeing, Insitu’s new owner, or a consensus of credible business reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
NBA Introduces Rule Changes to Reduce Three-Point Attempts Before 2026
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the NBA implements a rule change aimed at reducing the frequency of three-point attempts before the end of the 2026-27 season. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official NBA rule changes, NBA commissioner announcements, or a consensus of credible reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on a Sports League Rule Change from a credible reporting source.
RedBird Capital Sells Its Stake in Rajasthan Royals for Over $100 Million Before IPL 2026
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that RedBird Capital Partners sells its 15% stake in Rajasthan Royals for more than $100 million before the start of the IPL 2026 season. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official financial disclosures from RedBird Capital, Rajasthan Royals, or IPL-related business reports, but a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on a Private Equity Sports Investment Transaction
Chris Murphy Launches an Official 2028 Presidential Exploratory Committee
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Senator Chris Murphy establishes a formal exploratory committee or announces his intent to run for the U.S. presidency in 2028 before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from Senator Murphy’s office, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source
AstroForge’s Odin Spacecraft Successfully Reaches Asteroid 2022 OB5
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that AstroForge’s Odin spacecraft successfully reaches asteroid 2022 OB5 and begins its planned imaging operations before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from AstroForge, NASA, SpaceX and other agencies, but a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Trump and Putin Make a Joint Public Appearance in Riyadh
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will appear together at a televised press conference or public forum in Riyadh hosted by Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from recognized government channels, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source regarding the Joint Public Appearance in Riyadh of all three world leaders.
Hurricane Index adds Category 6 to Saffir-Simpson scale for storms with wind greater than 180 mph
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that one of the Agencies charged with measuring hurricane wind speed has decided to add a Category 6 to the Saffir-Simpson scale to categorize wind speeds of greater than 180 mph before the Event Date Close. A change in the Saffir-Simpson scale from out of 5 to be out of 10, will result in the Event Outcome Settling to “No”. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from the National Hurricane Center or The World Meteorological Organization, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Category 5 Hurricane is Officially Declared in the Gulf of America during the Summer 2025
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that a hurricane reaches Category 5 status during the 2025 summer season before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from the National Hurricane Center, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Elon Musk announces intent to re-ipo X at a $50 Billion plus valuation
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Elon Musk’s will bring X.com, formally Twitter, back to the public markets through an IPO at a $50 billion plus valuation before the Event Date Close. This Prediction has two Parts and both parts of the Event Outcome must Settle to "Yes" for the Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes". Part A: Elon Musk announces intent to Raise Public Funds at any valuation equal to or above $50 Billion for x.com Part B: Morgan Stanley and Goldman have been engaged to manage and Co-lead the IPO If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from X, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Apple Reinstates Advanced Data Protection (ADP) for UK iCloud Users
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Apple reintroduces its end-to-end encryption feature (Advanced Data Protection) for iCloud users in the United Kingdom before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from Apple, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source
Hackers Demonstrate Real-Time Control of a Smart Mattress Eight Sleep at a Major Security Conference
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that hackers publicly demonstrate remote control of a widely used smart mattress Eight Sleep—showing they can adjust temperatures or otherwise manipulate settings—in a live event before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from the Conference however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Melania Trump appears solo on the cover of Vanity Fair's U.S. regular Edition
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Melania Trump will appear solo on the cover of Vanity Fair's U.S. Edition in a non special edition and excluding a commemorative edition of first ladies of The United States (FLOTUS) before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from Vanity Fair, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Mount Rainier Lahar Detection System issues a public warning for a potential volcanic eruption
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the Mount Rainier Lahar Detection System issues a public warning for a potential volcanic eruption before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from the United States Geological Survey (USGS), however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Reddit Explores Potential Merger or Acquisition with Microsoft Linkedin
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Reddit is entering official merger or acquisition discussions with Microsoft Linkedin before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official statements from Reddit and Microsoft, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Steve Bannon is appointed to a position of Special Advisor in The White House
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if credible reporting source confirms that Steve Bannon has been appointed to a position of Special Advisor in The White House before the Event Close Date. This Prediction has two Parts and both parts of the Event Outcome must Settle to "Yes" for the Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes". Part A: Steve Bannon is pardoned Part B: Steve Bannon is appointed as a Special Advisor in The White House If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from Karoline Leavitt as President Trump’s Press Secretary or The White House directly. A consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used.
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