Events
Hurricane Index adds Category 6 to Saffir-Simpson scale for storms with wind greater than 180 mph
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that one of the Agencies charged with measuring hurricane wind speed has decided to add a Category 6 to the Saffir-Simpson scale to categorize wind speeds of greater than 180 mph before the Event Date Close. A change in the Saffir-Simpson scale from out of 5 to be out of 10, will result in the Event Outcome Settling to “No”. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from the National Hurricane Center or The World Meteorological Organization, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Category 5 Hurricane is Officially Declared in the Gulf of America during the Summer 2025
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that a hurricane reaches Category 5 status during the 2025 summer season before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from the National Hurricane Center, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Elon Musk announces intent to re-ipo X at a $50 Billion plus valuation
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Elon Musk’s will bring X.com, formally Twitter, back to the public markets through an IPO at a $50 billion plus valuation before the Event Date Close. This Prediction has two Parts and both parts of the Event Outcome must Settle to "Yes" for the Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes". Part A: Elon Musk announces intent to Raise Public Funds at any valuation equal to or above $50 Billion for x.com Part B: Morgan Stanley and Goldman have been engaged to manage and Co-lead the IPO If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from X, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Apple Reinstates Advanced Data Protection (ADP) for UK iCloud Users
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Apple reintroduces its end-to-end encryption feature (Advanced Data Protection) for iCloud users in the United Kingdom before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from Apple, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source
Hackers Demonstrate Real-Time Control of a Smart Mattress Eight Sleep at a Major Security Conference
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that hackers publicly demonstrate remote control of a widely used smart mattress Eight Sleep—showing they can adjust temperatures or otherwise manipulate settings—in a live event before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from the Conference however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Melania Trump appears solo on the cover of Vanity Fair's U.S. regular Edition
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Melania Trump will appear solo on the cover of Vanity Fair's U.S. Edition in a non special edition and excluding a commemorative edition of first ladies of The United States (FLOTUS) before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from Vanity Fair, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Mount Rainier Lahar Detection System issues a public warning for a potential volcanic eruption
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the Mount Rainier Lahar Detection System issues a public warning for a potential volcanic eruption before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from the United States Geological Survey (USGS), however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Reddit Explores Potential Merger or Acquisition with Microsoft Linkedin
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Reddit is entering official merger or acquisition discussions with Microsoft Linkedin before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official statements from Reddit and Microsoft, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Steve Bannon is appointed to a position of Special Advisor in The White House
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if credible reporting source confirms that Steve Bannon has been appointed to a position of Special Advisor in The White House before the Event Close Date. This Prediction has two Parts and both parts of the Event Outcome must Settle to "Yes" for the Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes". Part A: Steve Bannon is pardoned Part B: Steve Bannon is appointed as a Special Advisor in The White House If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from Karoline Leavitt as President Trump’s Press Secretary or The White House directly. A consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used.
Who will make a public bid to acquire Nikola out of Bankruptcy?
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the following Company or Group will make a public bid to acquire Nikola’s primary manufacturing assets and Intellectual Property out of bankruptcy before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from Bankruptcy Court, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. Currently, The United States Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware is hearing the case under the Honorable Judge Thomas M. Horan - case number 25-10258. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
"Big Balls” Coristine Removed from DOGE and all State Department Roles
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Edward “Big Balls” Coristine is relieved of or departs from his advisory position at DOGE and all State Department Roles before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from the State Department and other Agencies of The United States Government, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. Definition of Removed: No longer employed in the current position regardless of reason publicly stated. This includes but is not limited to Personal, Heath and other potentially confidential reasons. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Which member of Congress will DOGE Uncover Discrepancies in their Financial Disclosures?
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that a DOGE investigation has identified significant discrepancies between the Congress members’ Financial Disclosures reported sources of income and their documented net worth before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official statements from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
President Donald Trump Officially Closes the Carried Interest Tax Loophole
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that President Donald Trump formally submits a legislative proposal or executive action aimed at ending the carried interest tax treatment before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes," the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this market will be an official government announcement or legislative filings. President Trump, Elon Musk or an agency spokesperson of The United States Government may make the announcement. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement by a credible reporting source.
Prince Harry and Meghan Markle are served with a Deportation Order
This Event Outcome will be settled as "Yes” if credible reporting sources announce and or confirm that Prince Harry and Meghan Markle have been served with a Deportation Order and have thus decided to move back to England on or before the Event Close Date. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from The Department of Homeland Security and or The British Royal Family, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Floyd Mayweather buys stake in NFL New York Giants for greater than $1.0 Billion
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Floyd Mayweather Jr. and real estate mogul Meyer Orbach along with partners has acquired a 10% stake in the New York Giants for any amount greater than $1.0 Billion before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from the New York Giants however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
PayPal Honey Settles the Class Action Lawsuit Before the end of December 2025
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that PayPal Honey Settles the Class Action Lawsuit Before the end of December 2025 If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this market will be official information from PayPal, Cotchett, Pitre & Mccarthy, Llp, GamersNexus LLC, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement by a credible reporting source.
Delta agrees to compensation of greater than $150,000 per Passenger for the flight that flipped over in Toronto Pearson on Monday February. 17, 2025
This Event Outcome will settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Delta Airlines increases its initial compensation offer of $30,000 per passenger to settle on any amount greater than $150,000 per Passenger before the Event Date Close. If the current offer or future offers for compensation remains below the $150,000 threshold, the Event Outcome will Settle to "No". The primary source for this market will be official information from Delta, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. All amounts are stated in USD. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement by a credible reporting source.
Apple announces that the iPhone 16e has exceeded 20 million units sales at any time before September 2025
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Apple has shipped more than 20 million units of the iPhone 16e at any time before the end of its fiscal year (September 28, 2025). If official Apple data or a consensus of credible sources indicate that shipments remained at or below 20 million, the Event Outcome will Settle to "No". If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this market will be official information from Apple, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement by a credible reporting source.
Phone 16e Becomes the Best-Selling iPhone Model of Fiscal 2025
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if the iPhone 16e is reported to have the highest unit sales among all iPhone models (including Pro models) for Fiscal year 2025 on the 4th Quarter Conference Call of Apple. If another iPhone model sells more units, the Event Outcome will Settle to "No". If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this market will be official information from Apple, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement by a credible reporting source.
DOGE issues refund check of greater than $1,000 per person as payback for the $55 Billion found through Federal Government Waste from the Biden Era.
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes", if President Trump, Elon Musk or an agency of The United States Government announces that the Federal Government will issue a $1,000 check to all registered Tax Payers in The United States before the Event Close Date. The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from President Trump, Elon Musk, Karoline Leavitt and or an Agency of The United States Government, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement by a credible reporting source.
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