Events
Trump Officially Reverses the SALT Cap Before the 2026 Midterms
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Donald Trump successfully signs legislation or issues an executive order eliminating the $10,000 SALT cap before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". Definition of SALT and related terms: https://bipartisanpolicy.org/explainer/how-salt-may-shake-up-the-2025-tax-debate/ The primary source for this Event Outcome will be government records, legislative filings, or a consensus of credible financial and political reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Apple Announces an iPhone Model will be Fully "Made in America" iPhone Before 2026
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Apple announces an iPhone model that is manufactured entirely in the United States, without reliance on Chinese assembly, before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be Apple product announcements, manufacturing disclosures, or a consensus of credible technology reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Donald Trump Declares Congestion Pricing a "War on Cars" and Proposes Nationwide Toll Ban on any road that has received Federal Funds for construction
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Donald Trump or his administration proposes federal legislation banning congestion pricing or toll-based city access fees across the U.S. before the Event Date Close. Any proposed legislation does not have to pass The House or Senate for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes". It only has to be proposed by President Trump. If the Proposal is published through an Executive Order, this Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes". The mechanism may or may not be through Proposing Nationwide Toll Ban on any road that has received Federal Funds for construction. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be government legislative filings, campaign speeches, or a consensus of credible political reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on a National Anti-Toll Legislation Proposal.
Elon Musk Leaks "Proof" That the White House Blocked His SpaceX Rescue Mission Before 2026
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Elon Musk or an associated whistleblower leaks internal communications, emails, or official documents proving that the Biden White House directly intervened to prevent SpaceX from launching an early rescue mission for the stranded astronauts before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be investigative journalism reports, leaked government documents, or a consensus of credible political reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on a Political Space Controversy.
The New York Knicks Will Advance Past the Second Round of the 2025 NBA Playoffs
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the New York Knicks advance past the second round (Eastern Conference Semifinals) of the 2025 NBA Playoffs. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official NBA playoff results, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
A F1 Formula 1 Team is Caught Using “Sandbagging” Tactics to Conceal True Speed Until the First Race
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that an F1 team deliberately underperforms during preseason testing, only to reveal significantly greater pace at the season opener before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be analysis from F1 data specialists, team radio leaks, or major motorsport media reports, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
A New Submarine Cable is Secretly Laid Between Taiwan and a U.S. Military Base
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Taiwan, in partnership with the United States, lays a new classified or military-backed undersea cable linking Taiwan to a U.S. military base in the Pacific before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official defense and intelligence reports, leaks from defense contractors, or high-level military disclosures, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
NASA Announces an Unexpected Trajectory Shift for Asteroid 2024 YR4
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that NASA or another major space agency detects an unexpected trajectory shift for asteroid 2024 YR4, altering its future projected path before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be NASA’s planetary defense blog, statements from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), or official astronomical reports, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Justin Bieber Joins an NHL Team for a Preseason Exhibition Game
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Justin Bieber officially joins an NHL team for a preseason exhibition game before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official NHL team announcements, verified sports media, or Bieber’s own statements, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Elizabeth Holmes is Featured in a New Hollywood Biopic or Netflix or any Streaming Series after her Presidential Pardon
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that a major Hollywood studio or streaming platform officially announces a new movie or series about Elizabeth Holmes and Theranos before the Event Date Close. This Prediction has two Parts and both parts of the Event Outcome must Settle to "Yes" for the Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes". Part A: Ms. Elizabeth Holmes must have received a Presidential Pardon and be released from Prison. Part B: Ms. Elizabeth Holmes is Featured in a New Hollywood Biopic or Netflix or any Streaming Series If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official studio press releases, trade publications, or streaming service announcements, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Justin Bieber Collaborates with a Major Artist on a Surprise Album Drop
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Justin Bieber releases a surprise album in 2025 featuring a collaboration with another major artist before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official music industry announcements, streaming platform releases, or statements from Bieber’s representatives, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
10-Year Treasury Yield Falls Below 4% Due to DOGE Cost-Cutting Measures
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield falls below 4% as a direct or indirect result of DOGE’s spending cuts before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be market data as reported, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on the Yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond.
Elizabeth Holmes Wins a Presidential Pardon Before the End of 2025
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Elizabeth Holmes is granted a presidential pardon by the U.S. president before December 31, 2025. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official statements from the White House or Justice Department, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Elizabeth Holmes Secures a Multi-Million Dollar Book, Netflix Streaming or Documentary Deal While in Prison
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Elizabeth Holmes secures a book deal or signs an agreement with a publisher or Netflix for a memoir or tell-all book or series, while still serving her prison sentence before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official publisher announcements, media interviews, or Holmes’ representatives, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source
Donald Trump Wins the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Donald Trump is awarded the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize before the official Nobel announcement date on October 11, 2025. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official statements from the Nobel Prize Committee, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
The Republican-Controlled House Introduces a Bill Cutting $500 Million from NYC Infrastructure
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives formally introduces a budget provision or bill that seeks to cut $500 million from NYC infrastructure funding as retaliation for congestion pricing before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official congressional records or legislative announcements, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
WHO Issues a Pandemic Warning for HKU5-CoV-2
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the World Health Organization (WHO) issues an official pandemic warning or categorizes HKU5-CoV-2 as a global health emergency before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official WHO statements or global health organization reports, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
AP Wins Legal Case Against White House, Restoring Full Access to Press Briefings
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the Associated Press wins a legal challenge against the White House, leading to the restoration of full access to press briefings and events before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official court rulings or statements from the Associated Press, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Russian Tu-95MS Strategic Bomber Suffers a Mid-Air Fuel Leak and is Forced to Return to Base
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that a Tu-95MS bomber develops a fuel leak mid-flight and is forced to return to base before completing its bomber run near Ukraine before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official Russian military reports or international defense monitoring agencies, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
The Trump Administration Announces a Ban on Nvidia AI Chip Sales to China
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the U.S. government, under the Trump administration, officially bans Nvidia from selling AI chips to China before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official U.S. government announcements, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
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