Events
10-Year Treasury Yield Falls Below 4% Due to DOGE Cost-Cutting Measures
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield falls below 4% as a direct or indirect result of DOGE’s spending cuts before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be market data as reported, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on the Yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond.
Elizabeth Holmes Wins a Presidential Pardon Before the End of 2025
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Elizabeth Holmes is granted a presidential pardon by the U.S. president before December 31, 2025. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official statements from the White House or Justice Department, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Elizabeth Holmes Secures a Multi-Million Dollar Book, Netflix Streaming or Documentary Deal While in Prison
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Elizabeth Holmes secures a book deal or signs an agreement with a publisher or Netflix for a memoir or tell-all book or series, while still serving her prison sentence before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official publisher announcements, media interviews, or Holmes’ representatives, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source
Donald Trump Wins the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Donald Trump is awarded the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize before the official Nobel announcement date on October 11, 2025. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official statements from the Nobel Prize Committee, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
The Republican-Controlled House Introduces a Bill Cutting $500 Million from NYC Infrastructure
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives formally introduces a budget provision or bill that seeks to cut $500 million from NYC infrastructure funding as retaliation for congestion pricing before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official congressional records or legislative announcements, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
WHO Issues a Pandemic Warning for HKU5-CoV-2
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the World Health Organization (WHO) issues an official pandemic warning or categorizes HKU5-CoV-2 as a global health emergency before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official WHO statements or global health organization reports, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
AP Wins Legal Case Against White House, Restoring Full Access to Press Briefings
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the Associated Press wins a legal challenge against the White House, leading to the restoration of full access to press briefings and events before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official court rulings or statements from the Associated Press, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Russian Tu-95MS Strategic Bomber Suffers a Mid-Air Fuel Leak and is Forced to Return to Base
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that a Tu-95MS bomber develops a fuel leak mid-flight and is forced to return to base before completing its bomber run near Ukraine before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official Russian military reports or international defense monitoring agencies, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
The Trump Administration Announces a Ban on Nvidia AI Chip Sales to China
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the U.S. government, under the Trump administration, officially bans Nvidia from selling AI chips to China before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official U.S. government announcements, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Nvidia Announces a New AI Chip Specifically Designed to Bypass U.S. Export Controls
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Nvidia develops or announces a new AI chip tailored to comply with U.S. export restrictions while still being marketable to China before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official statements from Nvidia, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
FDA Expands Ozempic Approval for New Indication
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) officially approves Ozempic (semaglutide) for a new medical indication beyond type 2 diabetes before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official announcements from the FDA or Novo Nordisk, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source
Madonna and Akeem Morris Make Their Red Carpet Debut as a Couple
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Madonna and Akeem Morris attend a red carpet event together and pose for official photographs before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be major entertainment news outlets, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Sam Bankman-Fried Meets with a Trump Administration Official
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Sam Bankman-Fried or his legal team has a direct meeting with a Trump administration official, advisor, or intermediary. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be government records, investigative journalism reports, or a consensus of credible political and legal reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on a Political Influence Effort.
Robinhood Reports a Major Crypto Theft of Over $100 Million Before 2026
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Robinhood reports a cryptocurrency theft or security breach resulting in losses exceeding $100 million before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official statements from Robinhood, regulatory filings, or a consensus of credible reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on a Cryptocurrency Security Breach.
Boeing announces the sale of Insitu Drone Unit Before 2026
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Boeing completes the sale of its Insitu drone unit to one of the listed suitors before the end of 2025. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official financial disclosures from Boeing, Insitu’s new owner, or a consensus of credible business reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
NBA Introduces Rule Changes to Reduce Three-Point Attempts Before 2026
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the NBA implements a rule change aimed at reducing the frequency of three-point attempts before the end of the 2026-27 season. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official NBA rule changes, NBA commissioner announcements, or a consensus of credible reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on a Sports League Rule Change from a credible reporting source.
RedBird Capital Sells Its Stake in Rajasthan Royals for Over $100 Million Before IPL 2026
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that RedBird Capital Partners sells its 15% stake in Rajasthan Royals for more than $100 million before the start of the IPL 2026 season. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official financial disclosures from RedBird Capital, Rajasthan Royals, or IPL-related business reports, but a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on a Private Equity Sports Investment Transaction
Chris Murphy Launches an Official 2028 Presidential Exploratory Committee
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Senator Chris Murphy establishes a formal exploratory committee or announces his intent to run for the U.S. presidency in 2028 before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from Senator Murphy’s office, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source
AstroForge’s Odin Spacecraft Successfully Reaches Asteroid 2022 OB5
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that AstroForge’s Odin spacecraft successfully reaches asteroid 2022 OB5 and begins its planned imaging operations before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from AstroForge, NASA, SpaceX and other agencies, but a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Trump and Putin Make a Joint Public Appearance in Riyadh
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will appear together at a televised press conference or public forum in Riyadh hosted by Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from recognized government channels, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source regarding the Joint Public Appearance in Riyadh of all three world leaders.
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