Events
North Korea Announces Plans to Launch Its Own Digital Currency Before May 2025
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that North Korea officially announces or begins testing its own state-backed digital currency (CBDC) as an alternative to existing cryptocurrencies before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be North Korean government statements, blockchain tracking research, or a consensus of credible geopolitical and cryptocurrency reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source
Tesla Officially Classifies the US Government as a "Related Party" in any 8K 10Q or similar Financial Disclosures Before June 2025
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Tesla formally identifies the U.S. government as a "related party" in any SEC filings or financial disclosures before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be Tesla’s SEC filings, earnings reports, or a consensus of credible financial reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source
US Home Prices Drop in March 2025 for the First Time in Over a Year
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the average U.S. home price declines in March 2025 compared to the previous month, marking the first monthly drop in over a year. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official reports from the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index, National Association of Realtors, or a consensus of credible real estate reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source
South Korea Announces an Emergency Presidential Election Before May 2025
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that South Korea’s election commission announces an early presidential election before the Event Date Close due to Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment or resignation. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official South Korean government announcements, election commission rulings, or a consensus of credible political reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
London Mayor Sadiq Khan Takes Legal Action Against Heathrow’s Third Runway Before May 2025
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the Mayor of London or the Greater London Authority files a legal challenge or joins a lawsuit against the Heathrow third runway project before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be legal filings, mayoral office statements, or a consensus of credible political and environmental reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
US Government Issues Sanctions Against Romanian Officials Over Election Interference Before June 2025
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the U.S. government imposes sanctions on Romanian politicians, government officials, or individuals involved in the presidential election controversy before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be U.S. government statements, Treasury Department filings, or a consensus of credible foreign policy reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Calin Georgescu Is Arrested Before Romania’s Presidential Election in May 2025
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Calin Georgescu is formally arrested or detained by Romanian authorities before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be Romanian government announcements, legal filings, or a consensus of credible political reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Trump Officially Reverses the SALT Cap Before the 2026 Midterms
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Donald Trump successfully signs legislation or issues an executive order eliminating the $10,000 SALT cap before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". Definition of SALT and related terms: https://bipartisanpolicy.org/explainer/how-salt-may-shake-up-the-2025-tax-debate/ The primary source for this Event Outcome will be government records, legislative filings, or a consensus of credible financial and political reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Apple Announces an iPhone Model will be Fully "Made in America" iPhone Before 2026
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Apple announces an iPhone model that is manufactured entirely in the United States, without reliance on Chinese assembly, before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be Apple product announcements, manufacturing disclosures, or a consensus of credible technology reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Donald Trump Declares Congestion Pricing a "War on Cars" and Proposes Nationwide Toll Ban on any road that has received Federal Funds for construction
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Donald Trump or his administration proposes federal legislation banning congestion pricing or toll-based city access fees across the U.S. before the Event Date Close. Any proposed legislation does not have to pass The House or Senate for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes". It only has to be proposed by President Trump. If the Proposal is published through an Executive Order, this Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes". The mechanism may or may not be through Proposing Nationwide Toll Ban on any road that has received Federal Funds for construction. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be government legislative filings, campaign speeches, or a consensus of credible political reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on a National Anti-Toll Legislation Proposal.
Elon Musk Leaks "Proof" That the White House Blocked His SpaceX Rescue Mission Before 2026
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Elon Musk or an associated whistleblower leaks internal communications, emails, or official documents proving that the Biden White House directly intervened to prevent SpaceX from launching an early rescue mission for the stranded astronauts before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be investigative journalism reports, leaked government documents, or a consensus of credible political reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on a Political Space Controversy.
A Player Scores 70+ Points in a Single Game Before the End of the 2024-25 NBA Season
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that any NBA player scores at least 70 points in a single game before the conclusion of the 2024-25 NBA regular season. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official NBA game statistics, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
The New York Knicks Will Advance Past the Second Round of the 2025 NBA Playoffs
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the New York Knicks advance past the second round (Eastern Conference Semifinals) of the 2025 NBA Playoffs. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official NBA playoff results, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
The Cleveland Cavaliers Finish the Regular Season with the Best Record in the NBA
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the Cleveland Cavaliers finish the 2024-25 NBA regular season with the best overall record before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official NBA standings, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
A F1 Formula 1 Team is Caught Using “Sandbagging” Tactics to Conceal True Speed Until the First Race
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that an F1 team deliberately underperforms during preseason testing, only to reveal significantly greater pace at the season opener before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be analysis from F1 data specialists, team radio leaks, or major motorsport media reports, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
A New Submarine Cable is Secretly Laid Between Taiwan and a U.S. Military Base
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Taiwan, in partnership with the United States, lays a new classified or military-backed undersea cable linking Taiwan to a U.S. military base in the Pacific before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official defense and intelligence reports, leaks from defense contractors, or high-level military disclosures, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
NASA Announces an Unexpected Trajectory Shift for Asteroid 2024 YR4
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that NASA or another major space agency detects an unexpected trajectory shift for asteroid 2024 YR4, altering its future projected path before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be NASA’s planetary defense blog, statements from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), or official astronomical reports, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Justin Bieber Joins an NHL Team for a Preseason Exhibition Game
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Justin Bieber officially joins an NHL team for a preseason exhibition game before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official NHL team announcements, verified sports media, or Bieber’s own statements, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Elizabeth Holmes is Featured in a New Hollywood Biopic or Netflix or any Streaming Series after her Presidential Pardon
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that a major Hollywood studio or streaming platform officially announces a new movie or series about Elizabeth Holmes and Theranos before the Event Date Close. This Prediction has two Parts and both parts of the Event Outcome must Settle to "Yes" for the Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes". Part A: Ms. Elizabeth Holmes must have received a Presidential Pardon and be released from Prison. Part B: Ms. Elizabeth Holmes is Featured in a New Hollywood Biopic or Netflix or any Streaming Series If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official studio press releases, trade publications, or streaming service announcements, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Justin Bieber Collaborates with a Major Artist on a Surprise Album Drop
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Justin Bieber releases a surprise album in 2025 featuring a collaboration with another major artist before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official music industry announcements, streaming platform releases, or statements from Bieber’s representatives, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
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