Events
USDA Changes Bird Flu Policy on Infected Flocks
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the USDA announces a change in bird flu policy, such as no longer requiring the culling of infected flocks, before February 1, 2026. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from the USDA, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Prices Soar to $10 per Dozen
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the average price for a dozen grade-A eggs in the U.S. exceeds $10 before November 1, 2025. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Red Bull Fails to Win Any of the First Three Races
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Red Bull does not win any of the first three races of the 2025 Formula One season before April 15, 2025. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from Formula One Management, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Zelensky Wears a Suit, But Trump Shows Up in Golf Attire
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky wears a suit and former U.S. President Donald Trump wears golf attire (e.g., polo shirt, golf pants) during their public meeting before December 1, 2025. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from the Ukrainian government or the Trump Organization, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Wizards Tank Hard, Snag No. 1 Pick Before Draft Day Chaos!
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the Washington Wizards win the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft lottery before June 30, 2025. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from the NBA, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Stock Plummets 50% Before September
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Mixue Group's stock price on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange drops to HK$101.25 or lower (50% of the IPO price of HK$202.50) at any point before September 3, 2025. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Travis Kelce Drops Taylor Swift, Scores a Goldfish Ad Before Year-End Bash!
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Travis Kelce ends his relationship with Taylor Swift and appears in a Goldfish Crackers ad taking a playful jab at the breakup before December 31, 2025. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official statements from Pepperidge Farm (Goldfish) or Kelce’s team, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Musk’s X Live Feed of Trump at Fort Knox Sparks Gold Scandal Before Fall!
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that President Trump and Elon Musk visit the Fort Knox gold depository before September 30, 2025, and Musk livestreams it on X, alleging a gold shortfall or conspiracy. All parts of the Event Outcome must Settle to "Yes" for the Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes". Part A: President Trump and Elon Musk visit the Fort Knox gold depository together. Part B: Musk livestreams it on X Part C: Musk alleges a gold shortfall or conspiracy about the numbers or the accounting at Fort Knox If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official statements from X Corp or the U.S. Department of the Treasury, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Audit Bombshell: Fort Knox Gold Overcounted 5% in Secret!
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that an audit of Fort Knox, completed before December 31, 2025, finds that the gold reserves are overstated by at least 5%—roughly 7.365 million ounces—due to undisclosed errors or fraud. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official statements from the U.S. Department of the Treasury or congressional oversight committees, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Trump Forces Zelenskyy Out with Peace Deal Before July 1st!
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Volodymyr Zelenskyy is no longer Ukraine’s president due to a U.S.-brokered peace agreement with Russia, signed under President Trump’s influence, before July 1, 2025. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official statements from the White House or Ukrainian government, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
China Launches Full-Scale Taiwan Invasion Before Trump’s Summer Reset!
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that China initiates a full-scale military invasion of Taiwan, involving ground troops landing on Taiwanese soil, before July 1, 2025. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official statements from the Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense or the U.S. Department of Defense, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Booz Allen Hamilton Collapses After DOGE Cuts All Contracts
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Booz Allen Hamilton files for bankruptcy or ceases operations due to the complete termination of its U.S. government contracts by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official statements from Booz Allen Hamilton or bankruptcy filings, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
MLB Star Attacks Robot Umpire in Spring Training Meltdown
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that a Major League Baseball player physically attacks or damages equipment related to the Automated Ball-Strike System (e.g., cameras, sensors, or iPads) during a spring training game before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official statements from MLB or video evidence reviewed by the league, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Pitcher Loses MLB Roster Spot After Botched Robot Challenges
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that an MLB pitcher is demoted to the minors or released from a team roster explicitly due to repeatedly unsuccessful challenges of the Automated Ball-Strike System during spring training before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official team announcements or MLB roster updates, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
President Trump and Elon Musk Sell The US Postal Service to FedEx or UPS
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the Trump administration announces a sale of the US Postal Service to FedEx or UPS, transferring ownership or operational control, before the Event Date Close. This does not refer to the Close of the Transaction or Congressional Approval which may be required. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official statements from the White House or FedEx, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Elon Musk’s Efficiency Team Shuts Down Entire HUD Agency
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) is entirely eliminated or consolidated into another agency by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official statements from HUD or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Kings Court Capital Sells Suzuki Stake as BYD Dominates Asia Market
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Kings Court Capital reduces or sells its Suzuki Motor Corp. stake for any reason one of which may be due to BYD Co.’s electric vehicle dominance impacting Suzuki’s market share in Asia before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official statements from Kings Court Capital, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Suzuki Overtakes Tesla in India Market Unit Sales
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Suzuki’s India unit surpasses Tesla Inc. in total vehicle unit sales within the India market for a single month before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official sales data from Suzuki Motor Corp.’s India unit and Tesla Inc., however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
William Shatner Returns to Space on Blue Origin’s New Shepard at Age 94
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that William Shatner, previously the oldest person to travel to space at age 90 in October 2021, announces his intention to fly again into space on Blue Origin’s New Shepard rocket at age 94 before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from Blue Origin, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
Jeff Bezos Joins Lauren Sánchez on the All-Women Blue Origin Flight
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Jeff Bezos joins his fiancée Lauren Sánchez on the all-women Blue Origin flight, altering its original all-women designation, before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official information from Blue Origin, however a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
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