Will Valve release a new Half-Life game within 30 days of announcing it, by June 30, 2027?
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Description As of Nov 14, 2026 Valve hasn't announced a new Half-Life game. In Oct 2026 Valve composer Mike Morasky mentioned the rumored 'HLX' at GameSoundCon; leakers suggest a near-simultaneous reveal and launch.
- Resolves YES if, between Nov 14, 2026 and Jul 1, 2027 03:59 UTC, Valve officially announces a new Half-Life game AND it becomes publicly purchasable and playable as a full release on Steam within 720 hours (30 days) of the first official announcement.
- Resolves NO if no such game is announced by the deadline, it isn't fully released within 720 hours of announcement, or release falls after the deadline.
- 1. Specificity: Announcement = first time Valve names, shows or confirms the game via its own channels (Valve/Steam blog, official Half-Life socials, Steam store page, on-stage Valve reveal). Shadow drop = YES. Qualifying game: new Valve-developed/published game set in the Half-Life universe and marketed as part of the franchise, any title (mainline, spinoff, VR). US Steam release counts, incl. if limited to specific hardware (VR, Steam Machine/Frame).
- 2. Exclusion: Leaks, datamines, SteamDB changes and unofficial employee comments are not announcements. Betas, demos, playtests, early access, preorders, preloads or countdown pages without playable access are not releases. Remasters, ports, updates, mods and third-party/licensed projects (e.g. Half-Life 2 RTX) don't count.
- 3. Source Hierarchy: Official Valve/Steam announcements and Steam store page priority. IGN, PC Gamer, The Verge secondary. Other major gaming outlets tertiary.
- 4. Timing: Both must occur before Jul 1, 2027 03:59 UTC (Jun 30, 11:59 PM New York). Betting closes at Valve's first official announcement (incl. a Steam store page going live). May resolve YES early upon full release, or NO early if the announced release date is over 720 hours after announcement or after the deadline.
- 5. Cancellation Rule: Announcement without full release in 720 hours = NO. If released then delisted, YES.
Data Source for Event Outcome
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- The Primary Resolution Data for this Event Outcome may be published on one of the following sites:
- https://www.bloomberg.com/
- https://www.reuters.com/
- https://www.wsj.com
Resolution
- Resolution ID: cmwglls347m9y01s5361x9vpj