Will Thune File Cloture on the CLARITY Act Before the August 2026 Senate Recess?
210,609 Vol.in 11 days (Aug-07-2026 11:59:00 PM UTC)
DescriptionThe CLARITY Act (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act) cleared the Senate Banking Committee 15–9 and sits on the Senate calendar, but a floor vote requires Majority Leader Thune to first file a formal cloture motion. The Senate returns July 13 with ~3 weeks before the August recess — widely seen as the last realistic gate for 2026. Democrats need 7+ crossovers and are conditioning votes on a crypto ethics provision barring senior officials from profiting from crypto in office; the White House rejects this. Passage odds fell from ~74% in May to ~39–50% on Polymarket/Galaxy Research as of July 1.
- This event resolves YES if Senate Majority Leader John Thune (or any acting Senate leader) files a formal cloture motion on the CLARITY Act before the Senate formally enters its August 2026 recess (August 7, 2026 23:59 UTC as hard backstop).
- This event resolves NO if no cloture motion is filed before the Senate enters August recess.
- 1. Specificity: A formal cloture motion filed on the CLARITY Act (or a direct equivalent substitute bill) with the Senate clerk counts as YES.
- 2. Exclusion: Procedural test votes, unanimous consent agreements, or scheduling announcements do NOT count.
- 3. Source Hierarchy: Senate.gov / Congressional Record (primary), Politico / Reuters / Bloomberg / The Hill (secondary), Congress.gov / GovTrack (tertiary).
- 4. Timing: The Senate recess start date is the authoritative cutoff; August 7, 2026 23:59 UTC is the hard backstop.
- 5. Cancellation Rule: A cloture filing on a substantially amended substitute covering the same core market-structure framework counts as YES.