Will the US officially recognize Maria Corina Machado as the "Sole Executive Authority" before March 15, 2026?
369,627 Vol.4 months ago (Mar-16-2026 04:59:00 AM UTC)
DescriptionThis event resolves as "Yes" if, on or before March 15, 2026, the U.S. Executive Branch officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the "President," "Interim President," or "Sole Executive Authority" of Venezuela.
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- The "Cabinet Consensus & Sole Authority Rule" is in effect: A "Yes" requires an official statement (White House/State Dept) naming her as the primary executive. Crucially, if the US recognizes a "Transitional Council" or "Junta" where Machado is merely one of several members without supreme authority, the market resolves as "No." Recognition must be individual and unqualified. If the US recognizes Edmundo González as President while Machado is "Opposition Leader," it is a "No." If the US continues to deal with Delcy Rodriguez as the "Acting President" (the "Delcy Deal") by the deadline, it is a "No." Comments praising her as a "hero" or "winner" do not count without formal diplomatic recognition of her office.
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- As of Jan 12, 2026, Trump has publicly sidelined Machado, favoring a deal with Delcy Rodriguez to secure oil flows and "fix the country first" before elections. Despite Machado's 2025 Nobel Peace Prize and support from Senators Rubio and Scott, the administration’s "America First" wing views her as a potential source of instability. This market tracks whether the US will pivot from its current "business-first" approach with the remnants of the old regime to a formal recognition of the democratic opposition's leader by mid-March.
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- Resolution will be based on official announcements from WhiteHouse.gov or State.gov.