Will the US officially implement the 200% tariff on French Wine/Champagne before March 15, 2026?
905,343 Vol.5 months ago (Mar-15-2026 04:59:00 AM UTC)
Outcome
% Chance
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RESOLVED
No
$329,880 Vol.
100.0%
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RESOLVED
Yes
$341,941 Vol.
0.0%
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RESOLVED
Partial Tariff
$233,522 Vol.
0.0%
DescriptionThis event resolves based on the official tariff rate (ad valorem duty) specifically applied by the United States Federal Government to French Wine and/or Champagne (HTS codes starting with 2204) before March 15, 2026.
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- The "Implementation & Partial Rate Rule" is in effect: For a "Yes" resolution, the tariff must be officially enacted at a rate of 200% or higher. For a "Partial Tariff" resolution, a specific punitive tariff must be enacted that is higher than the baseline levels of 2025 (15%) but lower than the 200% threat. If no specific "wine tax" is enacted beyond general 10% EU-wide tariffs, the market resolves as "No." As of January 22, 2026, Trump has explicitly linked the 200% threat to Macron’s refusal to pay the $1 billion "Board of Peace" fee. Following the user's rule, if the administration officially announces the tariff with a legally binding future start date before March 15, it counts toward the final resolution. Confirmation will be based on official White House, Customs and Border Protection (CBP), or Federal Register notices. If a court stays the tariff through the deadline, it resolves as "No."
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- As of January 22, 2026, the "Champagne War" is at its peak. Trump is using the 200% figure as leverage while Macron calls it "blackmail." Analysts suggest the administration might settle for a 50% "partial" tariff as a show of force if a full deal isn't reached. This market tracks which way the hammer will fall.
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- Resolution based on official US Government trade directives.