Will the Iranian regime fall before January 1, 2027?
462,617 Vol.in 5 months (Dec-31-2026 08:29:00 PM UTC)
DescriptionThis event resolves as "Yes" if, by December 31, 2026, the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran is officially overthrown, dissolved, or ceases to function as the sovereign authority over the majority of Iranian territory.
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- The "Transitional Authority & Regime Change Rule" is in effect: A resolution of "Yes" is triggered if a fundamental shift in the political system occurs, such as the formal abolition of the office of the Supreme Leader or the dissolution of the IRGC. Crucially, the official recognition of a "Transitional Government" or "Provisional Council" by the United Nations (UN) or at least three G7 member states as the legitimate representative of Iran automatically triggers a "Yes." The death of Ali Khamenei alone does not trigger a "Yes" if he is replaced within the existing framework. Confirmation will be based on official declarations from the UN, major international news agencies (Reuters, AP), or a newly established governing body in Tehran. If the regime remains in power but is facing ongoing civil unrest, the market resolves as "No."
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- As of January 20, 2026, the regime is in its most vulnerable state. President Trump has threatened military strikes to "rescue" protesters and has imposed 25% tariffs on any nation doing business with Tehran. While some experts predict a "crack-up" of the elite, others point to the regime's historical resilience. This market tracks whether 2026 will be the year the 47-year-old system finally breaks.
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- Resolution based on official international news and diplomatic recognition.