Will the Bank of England cut rates by at least 25 bps by Mar 31, 2026?
546,289 Vol.4 months ago (Mar-31-2026 10:59:00 PM UTC)
DescriptionThis event measures whether the Bank of England reduces its official Bank Rate by a cumulative total of at least 25 basis points (0.25 percentage points) between January 1, 2026 and March 31, 2026 inclusive.
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- The reference starting rate is the official Bank Rate in effect at 00:00 London time on January 1, 2026. Any reductions to the Bank Rate announced and implemented by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) during scheduled or extraordinary meetings within the measurement window are counted toward the cumulative total.
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- Only formal Bank Rate changes decided by the MPC are eligible. Adjustments to operational frameworks, corridor systems, asset purchase programs, guidance language, or other tools that do not directly change the Bank Rate are excluded. Increases to the Bank Rate offset reductions when calculating the cumulative net change.
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- The event resolves “Yes” if, by the end of March 31, 2026 (23:59 London time), the cumulative net change in the Bank Rate reflects a reduction of at least 25 basis points relative to the starting rate on January 1, 2026. It resolves “No” if the cumulative reduction is less than 25 basis points or if rates are unchanged or higher.
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- Resolution is based solely on official MPC announcements and Bank of England publications. Market expectations, analyst commentary, or forward guidance statements do not affect the outcome.
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- This event does not assess the motivation for rate changes or their economic consequences. It strictly measures whether a qualifying cumulative Bank Rate cut has occurred within the defined period.