Will Tesla and SpaceX announce a signed merger agreement by December 4, 2026?
$25,579 Vol. 19d 5h left
Description Tesla and SpaceX (which absorbed xAI in Feb 2026) formed special board committees in October 2026 to evaluate a merger; Musk said no terms were agreed. On Nov 12, 2026, Bloomberg reported a deal could be announced in December, around Tesla's Dec 3 shareholder meeting, though timing could slip to early 2027.
- This event resolves YES if, between Nov 15, 2026 and 11:59 PM ET Dec 4, 2026 (04:59 UTC Dec 5), Tesla and/or SpaceX publicly announce a signed definitive merger, acquisition, or business combination agreement between them.
- This event resolves NO if no such announcement occurs by the deadline.
- 1. Specificity: A press release, SEC filing (e.g. 8-K), or official statement from either company confirming a signed definitive agreement counts. Structures via a new holding company or involving subsidiaries (e.g. xAI) count. Musk statements (X, Dec 3 meeting, interviews) count only if they explicitly confirm a definitive agreement has been signed.
- 2. Exclusion: Talks, term sheets, non-binding LOIs, agreements in principle, "we're merging" or "boards approved" remarks without a confirmed signed agreement, and anonymous-source media reports do not count. Deal closing not required. Announcements retracted within 24 hours as erroneous (e.g. hacked account) do not count.
- 3. Source Hierarchy: SEC EDGAR filings and official Tesla/SpaceX press releases priority. Elon Musk's official X account secondary. Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ tertiary.
- 4. Timing: Public announcement date controls, not signing date. An agreement signed by Dec 4 but first disclosed after 11:59 PM ET Dec 4 (America/New_York) resolves NO.
- 5. Cancellation Rule: If a signed agreement is announced then terminated before the deadline, resolves YES based on first announcement.
Data Source for Event Outcome
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- The Primary Resolution Data for this Event Outcome may be published on one of the following sites:
- https://www.bloomberg.com/
- https://www.reuters.com/
- https://www.wsj.com
Resolution
- Resolution ID: cmwi1atsucde101s550pn2gxu