Will Tesla and SpaceX announce a signed definitive merger agreement by December 31, 2026?
$44,695 Vol. 46d 5h left
Description SpaceX (public since its June 2026 IPO) and Tesla formed independent special committees to weigh a combination; Musk confirmed this on Oct 20, 2026, saying terms were not agreed. Bloomberg reported Nov 12 that a deal, with SpaceX absorbing Tesla, could be announced as soon as December (Tesla's annual meeting is Dec 3) or slip to 2027; exchange ratio and Tesla China remain open issues.
- This event resolves YES if, after event creation and before 11:59 PM ET Dec 31, 2026 (04:59 UTC Jan 1, 2027), Tesla and/or SpaceX publicly announce a signed definitive merger, acquisition or combination agreement between the two companies.
- This event resolves NO if no such announcement occurs by the deadline.
- 1. Specificity: Must be an official press release, SEC filing (e.g., 8-K, 425) or IR statement confirming a signed definitive agreement under which one company acquires or combines with all or substantially all of the other, including via a new holding company or triangular merger. Deal need not close.
- 2. Exclusion: Talks, leaks, non-binding term sheets, LOIs, committee updates, partial deals (asset sales, investments, licensing) do not count. A Musk social post alone does not count unless corroborated by an official release, filing or IR statement before the deadline.
- 3. Source Hierarchy: SEC EDGAR filings priority. Official Tesla/SpaceX press releases/IR pages secondary. Reuters, Bloomberg, WSJ tertiary, only to confirm an official announcement occurred.
- 4. Timing: The announcement itself must occur before 04:59 UTC Jan 1, 2027; an agreement signed by Dec 31 but first disclosed later resolves NO.
- 5. Cancellation Rule: If an agreement is announced then terminated before the deadline, resolves YES based on first announcement.
Data Source for Event Outcome
- You can dispute the decision within 7 days after the settlement; to do so, write to our technical support by email and telegram.
- The Primary Resolution Data for this Event Outcome may be published on one of the following sites:
- https://www.bloomberg.com/
- https://www.reuters.com/
- https://www.wsj.com
Resolution
- Resolution ID: cmwglovwo7mjo01s5989tx6pg