Will OpenAI officially declare it has achieved AGI between Jan 1 and Jun 30, 2027?
$39,281 Vol. 229d 2h left
Description Altman said in Aug 2026 OpenAI expects an internal system it calls AGI by end-2026; OpenAI later said it set no year-end deadline. At GPT-6 Astra's Sep 3, 2026 launch Greg Brockman hailed the 'AGI era', but OpenAI has not explicitly declared AGI achieved. The Microsoft AGI clause was removed in April 2026.
- This event resolves YES if, between Jan 1, 2027 00:00 ET and Jun 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET (Jul 1, 2027 03:59 UTC), OpenAI officially and explicitly declares it has achieved AGI.
- This event resolves NO if no such declaration occurs in that window.
- 1. Specificity: Counts if published on an official OpenAI channel (openai.com blog/newsroom, press release, @OpenAI or other verified OpenAI accounts) regardless of author, or stated on the record by OpenAI's sitting CEO (incl. Sam Altman's verified X account), plainly saying OpenAI has achieved/reached/built AGI (e.g. 'we have achieved AGI', 'our board determined AGI has been reached', 'we have achieved AGI by our definition'). A declaration about an internal/unreleased system counts.
- 2. Exclusion: Hedged, speculative or opinion wording ('may represent AGI', 'AGI era', 'close to AGI', 'I think we've basically built AGI', 'I'd call it AGI'); narrower milestones (e.g. 'automated AI research intern', superintelligence) without an explicit AGI claim; unverified reports of internal decisions; personal accounts/interviews of non-CEO staff.
- 3. Source Hierarchy: openai.com priority. Reuters, Bloomberg secondary. The Verge, TechCrunch tertiary.
- 4. Timing: Must occur in the window. Post-deadline resolves NO. Market closes early upon a qualifying declaration.
- 5. Prior declaration: If OpenAI makes a qualifying declaration before Jan 1, 2027 (covered by a separate market), this market is voided; in-window restatements don't count.
- 6. A later retraction does not undo a qualifying in-window declaration.
Data Source for Event Outcome
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- The Primary Resolution Data for this Event Outcome may be published on one of the following sites:
- https://www.bloomberg.com/
- https://www.reuters.com/
- https://www.wsj.com
Resolution
- Resolution ID: cmwf6nc5c3a5y01s5h8xils0y