Will Google, Anthropic, xAI, or Meta claim to have achieved AGI before July 1, 2027?
$38,971 Vol. 234d 9h left
Description As of Nov 2026, no frontier lab has claimed AGI. Musk said in Sept 2026 that unreleased Grok 5 is the model he expects to reach AGI; Nvidia's Jensen Huang said "I think we've achieved AGI" in March 2026.
- This event resolves YES if, between Nov 8, 2026 and June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET (July 1, 03:59 UTC), Google/Google DeepMind, Anthropic, xAI, or Meta unambiguously states it has achieved AGI.
- This event resolves NO if no such statement is made by the deadline.
- 1. Specificity: Counts via official company channel/filing, or public statement (X posts, interviews, podcasts, earnings calls, keynotes; recorded or primary-reported) by Pichai, Hassabis, Amodei, Musk, Zuckerberg, Alexandr Wang, or successors in those CEO/AI-lab-head roles. Must plainly say the company's own model/system (e.g., Gemini, Claude, Grok, Meta models) is or has achieved AGI ("we have achieved AGI," "Grok 5 is AGI"). "I think/believe we have achieved AGI" counts. Verification/expert agreement not required. xAI statements count if xAI is merged/renamed (e.g., into SpaceX/X).
- 2. Exclusion: Hedged, probabilistic, partial or future-tense claims ("could be," "close to," "basically/essentially AGI," "AGI-level," "will be," "for many tasks," "by some definitions," "AGI era has begun"); claims not about the company's own system (incl. Musk on Tesla/Optimus/SpaceX); jokes, or statements the speaker/company clarifies as non-literal within 72 hours; outsiders (e.g., Huang); OpenAI; "superintelligence"/"powerful AI" without "AGI"/"artificial general intelligence"; unverifiable statements (deleted, no archive/coverage).
- 3. Source Hierarchy: Official channels and executives' verified accounts priority. Reuters/Bloomberg/AP/The Verge secondary. Other reputable tech press tertiary.
- 4. Timing: Must occur in window; resolves YES early on a qualifying statement. Post-deadline resolves NO.
- 5. Cancellation Rule: A qualifying statement resolves YES even if later walked back (except 72-hour non-literal clarification).
Data Source for Event Outcome
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- The Primary Resolution Data for this Event Outcome may be published on one of the following sites:
- https://www.bloomberg.com/
- https://www.reuters.com/
- https://www.wsj.com
Resolution
- Resolution ID: cmw826ryb0owx01nprlgc7xmq