Will Google announce a new quantum processor with more than 105 qubits before July 1, 2027?
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Description Google's 105-qubit Willow chip (Dec 2024) is still Google Quantum AI's latest processor; its Oct 2026 magic-state result ran on Willow. A 500-1,000-qubit successor is rumored for late 2026/early 2027, and Google started a neutral-atom program in March 2026.
- This event resolves YES if, between Nov 13, 2026 and June 30, 2027 23:59 America/New_York (July 1, 2027 03:59 UTC), Google or Google Quantum AI first publicly discloses a quantum processor built by Google Quantum AI (alone or as lead developer) with more than 105 physical qubits.
- This event resolves NO otherwise.
- 1. Specificity: Disclosure via Google Quantum AI/Google blog, press release, keynote, or Google Quantum AI paper (preprint or journal; date = first public posting/embargo lift). Must state an explicit count above 105 qubits for a device that exists and has been operated (not all qubits need be used in one experiment). Any type counts (superconducting, neutral-atom, other); named or unnamed, incl. larger Willow-family chips.
- 2. Exclusion: Roadmaps, plans, simulations, leaks or rumors; vague claims ('hundreds of qubits'); couplers/resonators counted as qubits; devices built by third parties (e.g., QuEra) even if Google uses them; devices publicly disclosed before Nov 13, 2026; atom-trapping experiments not described by Google as a quantum processor/computer.
- 3. Source Hierarchy: Official Google Quantum AI/Google channels priority. Google Quantum AI papers (arXiv/journals) secondary. Major media (Reuters, Nature news, Ars Technica) tertiary, only when citing an official Google statement or paper.
- 4. Timing: First disclosure must occur before July 1, 2027 03:59 UTC. Post-deadline resolves NO. Resolution uses the earliest public timestamp; market closes early on qualifying disclosure.
- 5. Built-vs-Planned & Corrections: Announcing a device not yet built/operated resolves NO. A qualifying disclosure stands unless Google withdraws the claim before the deadline.
Data Source for Event Outcome
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- The Primary Resolution Data for this Event Outcome may be published on one of the following sites:
- https://www.bloomberg.com/
- https://www.reuters.com/
- https://www.wsj.com
Resolution
- Resolution ID: cmwf6rnia3afk01s52inyhnvx