Will Bitcoin Knots reach 24% of reachable Bitcoin nodes before Sept 17, 2026?
29,733 Vol.in 27 days (Sep-17-2026 11:59:00 PM UTC)
DescriptionBitcoin Core's v30 release scrapped the 80-byte OP_RETURN data limit, and an anti-"spam" faction revolted by migrating to the rival Bitcoin Knots client. Knots' reachable-node share spiked above 25% in Sept 2025, then cooled; as of Aug 20, 2026 it sits at ~19.08% of reachable public nodes per Coin Dance (coin.dance/nodes). This market tracks whether the Knots surge can retake ground.
- This event resolves YES if the Coin Dance "Bitcoin Nodes Summary" page (coin.dance/nodes) shows Bitcoin Knots at 24.0% or more of reachable ("corrected") nodes on any daily snapshot on or before 2026-09-17 23:59 UTC.
- This event resolves NO if Knots' Coin Dance share stays below 24.0% on every daily snapshot through the deadline.
- 1. Specificity: Only the Coin Dance reachable-node share (deduplicated, listening nodes) for the "Bitcoin Knots" client counts. A single daily snapshot at or above 24.0% resolves YES.
- 2. Exclusion: Non-listening/total-node counts, Bitnodes or other dashboards, staking/hashrate/miner-signaling figures (e.g., BIP-110), and "user agent" spoofed counts do NOT count for resolution.
- 3. Source Hierarchy: Coin Dance Bitcoin Nodes Summary (coin.dance/nodes) is the primary and authoritative source. Bitcoin Magazine coverage secondary. news.bitcoin.com coverage tertiary.
- 4. Timing: The 24.0% snapshot must appear on or before 2026-09-17 23:59 UTC. No qualifying snapshot by the deadline resolves NO.
- 5. Cancellation Rule: This tracks a live public metric, not a feature launch. If Coin Dance permanently stops publishing node-client shares before the deadline, resolution uses the last available Coin Dance reading before it went offline.