Will Bitcoin Knots hit 25% or more of public Bitcoin nodes on coin.dance before August 27, 2026?
27,005 Vol.in 28 days (Aug-27-2026 11:59:00 PM UTC)
DescriptionAs of late July 2026, Bitcoin Knots runs roughly 22% of reachable public Bitcoin nodes per coin.dance, up sharply amid the Bitcoin Core v30 OP_RETURN relay dispute (the ~80-byte to ~100,000-byte data-limit change). Knots operators favor strict relay filters; the Core defaults camp argues filters are ineffective. This event resolves YES if the daily reachable-node share for Bitcoin Knots on coin.dance (https://coin.dance/nodes/knots) reaches 25.0% or higher on any single day from 2026-07-30 00:00 UTC through 2026-08-27 23:59 UTC, inclusive. This event resolves NO if Knots never reaches 25.0% within that window.
- 1. Specificity: Only coin.dance's "reachable nodes" user-agent percentage for Bitcoin Knots counts; the figure must show 25.0% or higher on any day in the window.
- 2. Exclusion: Peaks before the market open (including the ~25.45% peak on 2025-09-14) do NOT count. Total/all-node estimates, other trackers (BitRef, Bitnodes, Knots' own counters), mining-pool relay policy, and BIP-110 signaling do NOT count.
- 3. Source Hierarchy: coin.dance/nodes/knots priority. coin.dance Bitcoin Nodes Summary secondary. Archived coin.dance snapshots tertiary.
- 4. Timing: The 25% threshold must be reached between 2026-07-30 00:00 UTC and 2026-08-27 23:59 UTC. Not reaching it in the window resolves NO.
- 5. Cancellation Rule: Resolution follows coin.dance's reported reachable-node figure as-is, regardless of manipulation disputes. If Knots reaches 25% then falls back before the deadline, it still resolves YES based on the first day within the window the threshold was met.