Will BIP-110 backers ship runnable PoW-change code for their minority chain by Sept 14, 2026?
37,731 Vol.in 27 days (Sep-14-2026 11:59:59 PM UTC)
DescriptionAfter BIP-110 (the anti-spam "reduced arbitrary data" soft fork) drew only 2.53% miner signaling on Aug 8, 2026 — far under its own 55% threshold — its backers split onto a minority chain that stalled after four blocks (by Aug 12), unable to mine against Bitcoin's inherited SHA-256 difficulty. On Aug 11 backers selected BLAKE2b as the intended replacement algorithm and floated a Sept 1 hard fork, but as of Aug 17 no runnable client has been released and no activation height announced. This event resolves YES if, on or before 2026-09-14 23:59:59 UTC, BIP-110 backers publicly release runnable client code (a public repo commit or tagged release) that changes the minority chain's proof-of-work away from SHA-256d to a named algorithm (e.g. BLAKE2b, RandomX, Scrypt) with a defined activation. Resolves NO if no such code is released by the deadline.
- 1. Specificity: YES requires published, runnable PoW-change client code that (a) names the replacement algorithm and (b) includes a defined activation for the live minority chain, meaning a specific activation block height OR timestamp baked into the released code.
- 2. Exclusion: Discord discussion, draft BIP text, blog posts, polls, or verbal announcements without merged/tagged runnable code do NOT count. Pre-existing experimental/contingency PoW branches lacking a committed activation for the live minority chain do NOT count. Resuming SHA-256 mining does NOT count.
- 3. Source Hierarchy: BIP-110/Bitcoin Knots-aligned public GitHub repos priority. Backer announcements (Dathon Ohm, Roughnecks) secondary. Reputable crypto news (news.bitcoin.com, cryptoslate) tertiary.
- 4. Timing: Must occur before 2026-09-14 23:59:59 UTC. Post-deadline resolves NO.
- 5. Cancellation Rule: YES requires both an announcement AND runnable implementation code with a defined activation before deadline. Announcement alone resolves NO. If code is released then withdrawn before deadline, resolves YES based on first release.