Will Apple announce a deal to acquire Perplexity AI or Mistral AI by December 31, 2027?
$46,752 Vol. 411d 5h left
Description In Aug 2025, The Information reported Apple discussed buying Perplexity or Mistral; Apple instead partnered with Google Gemini for Siri. John Ternus became CEO on Sept 1, 2026, and Steve Smith took over Apple M&A in Oct 2026. Perplexity was valued ~$20-23B (Nvidia reportedly in talks at $30B+); Mistral raised €3B at €21B+ in Sept 2026. Apple's largest deal is Beats (~$3B).
- This event resolves YES if, between market creation and Dec 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET (Jan 1, 2028 04:59 UTC), Apple, Perplexity or Mistral publicly confirms a signed definitive agreement for Apple to acquire Perplexity AI or Mistral AI, or two listed outlets independently report such an agreement has been signed.
- This event resolves NO otherwise.
- 1. Specificity: Signed definitive agreement giving Apple Inc. (or a wholly owned subsidiary) all or >50% control of Perplexity AI, Inc. or Mistral AI SAS (incl. parent, holding company, or renamed successor). Closing/regulatory approval not required. Staged deals count only once a signed agreement gives >50%.
- 2. Exclusion: Minority stakes, licensing, partnerships, acqui-hires, asset-only purchases, rumors, talks, non-binding term sheets, unaccepted bids, single-source reports, or reports denied by a party within 48h without later confirmation. Agreements before market creation don't count.
- 3. Source Hierarchy: Press releases, SEC/regulatory filings, or on-record statements by Apple/Perplexity/Mistral priority (override media). Reuters/Bloomberg secondary. WSJ/CNBC/FT/The Information tertiary.
- 4. Timing: Must be announced/reported before the deadline; post-deadline resolves NO. If a qualifying agreement is announced, market closes immediately and resolves YES.
- 5. Cancellation Rule: An agreement announced before the deadline but later terminated or blocked still resolves YES.
Data Source for Event Outcome
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- The Primary Resolution Data for this Event Outcome may be published on one of the following sites:
- https://www.bloomberg.com/
- https://www.reuters.com/
- https://www.wsj.com
Resolution
- Resolution ID: cmwi1sfeiceyu01s5lbip0pey