Will any Satoshi-attributed bitcoin move, or a Satoshi-key signature be verified, before 2028?
$20,349 Vol. 418d 11h left
Description Satoshi Nakamoto is estimated to control ~1.1M BTC mined in 2009–2010 (Sergio Lerner's "Patoshi" pattern), untouched since 2010. Adam Back was named by the NYT in April 2026 (he denies it). Early miner wallets moved in August 2026, but none were Satoshi's.
- This event resolves YES if, between market creation and 11:59 PM ET Dec 31, 2027 (04:59 UTC Jan 1, 2028), any output locked to a Satoshi-attributed key/address is spent on the Bitcoin (BTC) chain, or a message is verified as signed with such a key.
- This event resolves NO otherwise.
- 1. Specificity: Satoshi-attributed = keys from coinbase outputs of blocks in Lerner's Patoshi dataset or Arkham's "Satoshi Nakamoto" entity; or coins explicitly called Satoshi's by 2+ of Arkham, Chainalysis, Glassnode, Galaxy Research, CoinDesk, The Block, Bloomberg, Reuters. Spending any output locked to such keys (incl. dust received later) counts, whoever spends. Signatures must verify (signmessage/BIP-322) against such a key, confirmed by one of Arkham, Chainalysis, Glassnode, Galaxy Research, or two well-known Bitcoin Core contributors.
- 2. Exclusion: Merely receiving coins; "Satoshi-era"/"possibly Satoshi" wallets outside the reference set; outputs spent before market creation (e.g., 2009 block 170 transfer); BCH/BSV/fork spends; claims, documents, PGP signatures. If a soft fork freezes these outputs and they stay unspent, NO.
- 3. Source Hierarchy: Blockchain data (mempool.space) confirms the spend; the reference set confirms attribution and prevails in disputes. Named firms secondary; named outlets tertiary.
- 4. Timing: The spend's block time per mempool.space (or signature publication time) must be before the deadline. 6+ confirmations and verification may complete after the deadline; resolver waits up to 7 days. Post-deadline spends resolve NO.
- 5. Cancellation Rule: Rumors or retracted reports do not count; a verified spend is final.
Data Source for Event Outcome
- You can dispute the decision within 7 days after the settlement; to do so, write to our technical support by email and telegram.
- The Primary Resolution Data for this Event Outcome may be published on one of the following sites:
- https://www.bloomberg.com/
- https://www.reuters.com/
- https://www.wsj.com
Resolution
- Resolution ID: cmw81bsr70ipf01npouuazhxw