Will AMD's next-gen Radeon desktop GPU (RDNA 5/UDNA) go on sale in the US before Nvidia's RTX 60 series?
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Description Nvidia hasn't dated its GeForce RTX 60 (Rubin) series; leaker kopite7kimi said in Sept 2026 its GR20x gaming GPUs are now a 2028 product. AMD's RDNA 4 successor (RDNA 5/UDNA) is rumored for mid-2027 to early 2028. Neither has an official date.
- This event resolves YES if a desktop card on AMD's next-gen Radeon architecture reaches general US retail sale before any RTX 60-series desktop card, by Dec 31, 2028 11:59 PM America/New_York (Jan 1, 2029 04:59 UTC).
- This event resolves NO if an RTX 60 desktop card reaches US retail sale first or on the same New York calendar day, or if neither does by the deadline.
- 1. Specificity: On sale = in-stock standalone add-in cards buyable for immediate shipping/pickup at Best Buy, Newegg, Amazon, Micro Center or the maker's US store; quick sell-outs count. First seller with buyable stock counts. AMD: architecture AMD officially calls a new generation after RDNA 4, any name. Nvidia: next desktop GeForce generation after RTX 50, any branding.
- 2. Exclusion: Pre-orders, later-shipping listings, reviews, paper launches, prebuilt/OEM-only or non-US-exclusive launches, laptop, workstation/data-center, console/integrated chips, RDNA 4.x variants, rebrands and refreshes (e.g. RTX 50 Super) do not count.
- 3. Source Hierarchy: Official AMD/Nvidia press releases priority. Tom's Hardware, TechPowerUp, The Verge, VideoCardz secondary. US retailer listings tertiary. If official date and actual stock conflict, documented availability decides.
- 4. Timing: Must occur by the deadline; later resolves NO. Betting closes when either company first officially announces a specific US retail date for a qualifying card; later bets are void. Resolves early once either side reaches retail.
- 5. Cancellation Rule: Announcement without retail availability does not count.
Data Source for Event Outcome
- You can dispute the decision within 7 days after the settlement; to do so, write to our technical support by email and telegram.
- The Primary Resolution Data for this Event Outcome may be published on one of the following sites:
- https://www.bloomberg.com/
- https://www.reuters.com/
- https://www.wsj.com
Resolution
- Resolution ID: cmwdqrzug0h9g01nr6thya8ht