Will a US Federal Court block the 75-country visa ban before February 10, 2026?
150,651 Vol.6 months ago (Feb-10-2026 04:59:00 AM UTC)
DescriptionThis event resolves as "Yes" if, on or before February 9, 2026, a U.S. Federal Court issues a ruling—specifically a Temporary Restraining Order (TRO) or Preliminary Injunction—that effectively halts the implementation of the Department of State's 75-country immigrant visa pause (announced January 14, 2026).
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- The "Nationwide Scope Rule" is in effect: For a "Yes" resolution, the court order must have a "nationwide" or "universal" application, meaning it blocks the Department of State from enforcing the visa pause for all eligible applicants from the 75 listed countries, not just for the individual plaintiffs named in a specific lawsuit. If a court issues a "limited" or "as-applied" injunction that only protects specific persons or citizens of a single country (e.g., only applicants from Brazil), the market resolves as "No." The ruling must be officially filed and confirmed via PACER or announced by the Department of Justice (DOJ). Appeals by the government do NOT change a "Yes" resolution if the initial injunction stays in place as of the February 10 deadline. If the pause, scheduled to begin January 21, proceeds without a broad judicial block, the market resolves as "No."
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- As of January 18, 2026, legal pressure is mounting. Following the January 14 announcement of the "public charge review pause," groups like IMMpact Litigation have set a January 31 deadline for plaintiffs to join their massive collective action. Meanwhile, a separate suit filed in Boston on January 9 (challenging earlier holds) serves as a template for the 75-country battle. The DOJ, led by Pam Bondi, is expected to argue that the President has absolute authority under INA section 212(f) to suspend entry. This market tracks whether the "Judicial Resistance" can secure a broad victory against the administration’s most sweeping immigration policy yet.
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- Resolution based on official US federal court orders and PACER records.