Will a quantum computer factor a number larger than 21 with genuine Shor's algorithm before 2028?
$13,977 Vol. 418d 11h left
Description Genuine Shor's runs on quantum hardware have only factored 15 and 21, mostly via "precompiled" circuits built from known factors; an Oct 2026 Scientific Reports paper factored 15 with explicit modular exponentiation. 2026 RSA-2048 resource estimates fell sharply.
- This event resolves YES if, between Nov 8, 2026 and Dec 31, 2027 11:59 PM America/New_York, a qualifying source first reports factoring an odd composite, non-prime-power integer greater than 21 on physical quantum hardware using genuine Shor's algorithm.
- This event resolves NO otherwise.
- 1. Specificity: Quantum order-finding on modular exponentiation must run on the device; circuit and base a derived only from N and a, not the factors. Semi-classical QFT, qubit recycling, classical post-processing allowed. Correct factors must be recovered from measured outputs, with success probability at least 2x that of uniformly random outputs (reported or checkable from data).
- 2. Exclusion: Precompiled circuits, hybrid/variational (QAOA, Schnorr), annealing, classical simulation, elliptic-curve results, failed/inconclusive runs, results first reported before Nov 8, 2026. A claim fails if, within its dispute period, a published rebuttal or two credible independent experts argue it used knowledge of the factors and authors give no adequate response.
- 3. Source Hierarchy: arXiv/peer-reviewed paper or official announcement from an established quantum company (IBM, Google, Quantinuum, IonQ etc.), university or national lab priority; fringe claims need credible expert or major outlet endorsement. Expert commentary (Aaronson, Gidney) and major science media secondary. Trackers (qdaycountdown.com) informational only.
- 4. Timing: Report must appear before the deadline. YES settles after a 30-day dispute period from posting (or Jan 31, 2028 if later); NO settles Jan 31, 2028.
- 5. Cancellation Rule: Announcements without a completed hardware run do not count. Resolution is final; later retractions do not change it.
Data Source for Event Outcome
- You can dispute the decision within 7 days after the settlement; to do so, write to our technical support by email and telegram.
- The Primary Resolution Data for this Event Outcome may be published on one of the following sites:
- https://www.bloomberg.com/
- https://www.reuters.com/
- https://www.wsj.com
Resolution
- Resolution ID: cmw81gmmq0jeh01npqqx6sig2