Will a candidate win the Colombian Presidency in the 1st Round?
3,698,628 Vol.2 months ago (May-31-2026 09:00:00 PM UTC)
Outcome
% Chance
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RESOLVED
None (Second Round Required)
$276,151 Vol.
100.0%
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RESOLVED
Juan Manuel Galán
$324,770 Vol.
0.0%
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RESOLVED
Claudia López
$362,101 Vol.
0.0%
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RESOLVED
Iván Cepeda Castro
$342,463 Vol.
0.0%
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RESOLVED
Other
$263,153 Vol.
0.0%
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RESOLVED
Paloma Valencia
$238,768 Vol.
0.0%
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RESOLVED
Juan Carlos Pinzón
$203,523 Vol.
0.0%
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RESOLVED
Gustavo Bolívar
$294,958 Vol.
0.0%
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RESOLVED
Juan Daniel Oviedo
$258,733 Vol.
0.0%
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RESOLVED
Germаn Vargas Lleras
$311,544 Vol.
0.0%
DescriptionThis event predicts whether a candidate will be elected President of Colombia in the first round on May 31, 2026. Under the Colombian Constitution, a winner is declared only if a candidate receives an absolute majority (50% plus one) of the valid votes. Valid votes are defined as the sum of votes for all specific candidates plus the "Voto en Blanco" (blank vote). Spoiled, null (nulos), or unmarked ballots are excluded from the denominator.
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- The market resolves to a specific candidate only upon official certification by the Consejo Nacional Electoral (CNE) following the Escrutinio (final legal count). Resolution will NOT occur based on "Preconteo" (fast count) or candidate concessions, as these lack legal finality. If no candidate reaches the 50%+1 threshold of valid votes, the market resolves to None (Second Round Required).
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- If the election is suspended, postponed, or nullified in more than 20% of the national territory due to violence, civil unrest, or the death of major candidates (following the precedent of the 2025 Uribe Turbay assassination), the market will be voided. Any reports, leaks, or exit polls published before or after the 16:00 COT closing time will be monitored; however, they do not trigger resolution or change the pre-set deadline.
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- The resolution is tied to the individual identity of the candidate. If a listed candidate is disqualified or withdraws before the election but remains on the physical ballot and is certified as the winner, that candidate is the winning outcome. If the CNE confirms a runoff election for June 21, 2026, the "None" outcome is triggered immediately upon the official announcement of the runoff participants. All outcomes are final once certified by the CNE.