Will a Bipartisan Crypto Ethics Amendment Text Be Publicly Released Before the August 2026 Senate Recess?
155,504 Vol.in 15 days (Aug-04-2026 11:59:00 PM UTC)
DescriptionThe CLARITY Act (H.R. 3633) needs 60 Senate votes and at least 7 Democratic crossovers. Senators Gallego, Alsobrooks, and Gillibrand have made floor support conditional on an ethics provision barring officials — including the president — from personal crypto interests. As of June 30, 2026, negotiations have repeatedly collapsed; a December 2025 compromise was rejected by Trump; closed-door talks broke down June 9 over enforcement mechanisms. Senator Lummis promised text over the July 4 weekend. Senate returns July 13; August recess is ~August 4, 2026. Galaxy Research cut passage odds to 50%.
- This event resolves YES if a formal, publicly-released ethics amendment text — endorsed by at least one Democratic AND one Republican senator — is published (via senate.gov, Senate press release, or confirmed by Reuters/Politico/CoinDesk) on or before August 4, 2026 UTC. This event resolves NO if no such bipartisan ethics text is published by August 4, 2026 UTC.
- 1. Specificity: A named amendment with at least one Democratic and one Republican public co-sponsor or written endorsement counts as YES.
- 2. Exclusion: Press statements, promises, private negotiations, or floor votes on CLARITY Act without ethics text do NOT count. White House statements count only if issued via a formal written statement by the White House Crypto Council or Office of Legislative Affairs.
- 3. Source Hierarchy: senate.gov/official Senate press releases primary. Reuters, Politico, CoinDesk secondary.
- 4. Timing: Must occur on or before August 4, 2026 UTC. August 4 is the operative cutoff regardless of actual recess date variance. Early recess: if Congress formally recesses before August 4 without releasing ethics text, resolves NO on recess start date.
- 5. Cancellation: Not applicable — the event will resolve YES or NO.