Who Will Retaliate First Against Trump’s Tariffs by Oct 31, 2025 — China, India or the EU?
26,911 Vol.10 months ago (Nov-01-2025 03:59:00 AM UTC)
Outcome
% Chance
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RESOLVED
No one before deadline
$4,686 Vol.
100.0%
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RESOLVED
India
$4,723 Vol.
0.0%
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RESOLVED
EU
$9,116 Vol.
0.0%
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RESOLVED
China
$8,386 Vol.
0.0%
DescriptionWill China, India, or the European Union be the first jurisdiction to formally enact a binding counter-measure in response to new U.S. tariff actions promoted by Donald Trump during 2025, on or before October 31, 2025? “Binding counter-measure” means a published legal act (e.g., tariff schedule, customs duty regulation, official gazette notification) that targets U.S. goods, states rates/categories, and sets an effective date. Press briefings, leaks, or non-binding drafts do not count. If multiple acts are published on the same day, resolution is based on the earliest official timestamp (UTC). If timestamps are indeterminable or equal, resolution is based on Reuters/Bloomberg’s first report. If none of the three enacts a binding measure by the Event Date Close, the Event Outcome will Settle to “No one before deadline.” The primary resolution will be based on official publications of the listed jurisdictions; confirmation may also be supported by Reuters or Bloomberg. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on a Government Trade Retaliation.