Which Stablecoin Issuer will be the primary partner for the first U.S. Treasury payment pilot?
2,262,253 Vol.4 months ago (Apr-01-2026 03:59:00 AM UTC)
Outcome
% Chance
RESOLVED
Circle (USDC)
$326,588 Vol.
100.0%
RESOLVED
Bank-led Consortium
$452,696 Vol.
0.0%
RESOLVED
Paxos
$479,614 Vol.
0.0%
RESOLVED
Coinbase
$505,737 Vol.
0.0%
RESOLVED
Other/None
$497,617 Vol.
0.0%
DescriptionThis event resolves based on the official selection of a stablecoin issuer or financial technology partner for the United States Department of the Treasury’s first federal payment pilot program. Following the passage of the GENIUS Act of 2025, this market tracks which private-sector entity will provide the primary issuance infrastructure for government disbursements.
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- The outcome is determined by the specific entity named as the "primary partner," "lead issuer," or "service provider" in official Treasury Department documentation or press releases. If the Treasury selects Circle Internet Financial (issuer of USDC), the outcome resolves as "Circle (USDC)." If Paxos or Coinbase is named as the lead entity, their respective outcomes will be triggered. In cases where the Treasury partners with a group of regulated commercial banks to issue a joint settlement token, the outcome resolves as "Bank-led Consortium." If an issuer not listed is selected, or if no partner is officially named by March 31, 2026, the event resolves as "Other/None."
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- Ahead of resolution, this market is influenced by public comments from Secretary Scott Bessent regarding "private-public partnerships" and official certification lists from the Stablecoin Certification Review Committee (SCRC). Market participants monitor for formal partnership announcements and interagency reports on the implementation of regulated payment stablecoins for federal subsidies or disaster relief.
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- Primary resolution sources are official press releases from Treasury.gov and verified corporate announcements from the selected partners. Secondary sources include formal filings in the Federal Register.
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- This event measures the institutional alignment between the U.S. government and major players in the digital asset industry.