Which S&P 500 sector will show the highest percentage gain in Q1 2026?
2,387,346 Vol.4 months ago (Apr-01-2026 03:59:00 AM UTC)
Outcome
% Chance
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RESOLVED
Energy
$495,998 Vol.
100.0%
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RESOLVED
Other
$480,776 Vol.
0.0%
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RESOLVED
Financials
$466,838 Vol.
0.0%
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RESOLVED
Healthcare
$412,264 Vol.
0.0%
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RESOLVED
Information Technology
$531,469 Vol.
0.0%
DescriptionThis event resolves based on the price performance (percentage gain) of the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 during the first quarter of 2026. Performance is measured from the close of the last trading day of 2025 to the close of March 31, 2026.
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- As of early January 2026, market sentiment is defined by "multidimensional polarization," as noted by J.P. Morgan Global Research. While the Information Technology sector is expected to lead with 13-15% earnings growth driven by the "AI supercycle," its extreme concentration in mega-cap stocks makes it a narrow bet. Financials enter 2026 as a top contender due to policy deregulation and a "higher for longer" rate environment. Energy remains a hedge against geopolitical shocks, while Healthcare is touted by Bank of America as the #1 sector for value and momentum in early 2026.
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- A critical factor for traders is the divergence between market-cap-weighted sectors and their "Equal Weight" counterparts. To evaluate the breadth of the rally, users should monitor the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (RSP). If tech giants like Nvidia and Microsoft drive the sector (XLK) higher while the average stock in the index lags, it signals a high-concentration risk. However, for the purpose of this market, resolution is based strictly on the standard market-cap-weighted Select Sector Indices. Resolution will use the official "Price Return" (excluding dividends) from S&P Dow Jones Indices. If two sectors are tied within 0.01%, the sector with the higher absolute dollar gain in its tracking ETF (e.g., XLK vs XLF) will be declared the winner.