When will Tesla first deliver an Optimus robot to a consumer for home use?
$25,145 Vol. 414d 6h left
Outcome
% Chance
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By Dec 31, 2028
$7,815 Vol.
40.0%
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By Jun 30, 2028
$13,651 Vol.
27.0%
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By Dec 31, 2027
$3,679 Vol.
18.0%
Description Tesla has begun early Optimus V3 production at Fremont. On its Oct 22, 2026 Q3 call Tesla said external deliveries start around late 2027, beginning with industrial/business customers; no consumer date given. Musk has suggested Optimus may be rented rather than sold.
- Each outcome resolves YES if, between Nov 12, 2026 and its deadline (11:59 PM ET), Tesla physically delivers at least one Optimus robot to a private consumer for household/personal use. Otherwise NO.
- 1. Specificity: Sale, lease, rental, subscription or a paid pilot open to the public count if the robot is delivered to an unaffiliated member of the public under a standard paid agreement for household/personal use (even if they own a business).
- 2. Exclusion: Deliveries to businesses, research, industrial sites or Tesla facilities do not count. Deliveries to Tesla directors, officers, employees, Elon Musk or their immediate families do not count. Demos, media/influencer loans, giveaways, orders or reservations without delivery do not count.
- 3. Source Hierarchy: Official Tesla statement (press release, earnings call, Tesla/Musk X post) AND confirmation by a major outlet (Reuters, Bloomberg, WSJ, CNBC), or major-outlet reporting of a verified consumer delivery. Unverified claims resolve NO.
- 4. Timing: Delivery must occur before each rung's deadline. Confirmation published up to 14 days after a deadline may be used if it shows delivery occurred before it. Once a qualifying delivery is confirmed, open rungs close early and resolve YES.
- 5. Cancellation Rule: Announcement of consumer availability without delivery resolves NO. A delivery later recalled or returned still counts from the first delivery date. YES on an earlier rung implies YES on all later rungs.
Data Source for Event Outcome
- You can dispute the decision within 7 days after the settlement; to do so, write to our technical support by email and telegram.
- The Primary Resolution Data for this Event Outcome may be published on one of the following sites:
- https://www.bloomberg.com/
- https://www.reuters.com/
- https://www.wsj.com
Resolution
- Resolution ID: cmwdr9xnw0ipb01nrdljrqj9s