When will OpenAI publicly release GPT-6.2?
$24,231 Vol. 33d 6h left
Outcome
% Chance
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Dec 15
$5,394 Vol.
78.0%
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Nov 20
$2,281 Vol.
68.0%
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Nov 30
$6,351 Vol.
68.0%
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Nov 15
$10,206 Vol.
38.0%
Description GPT-6 Astra (Sep 3) is OpenAI's flagship. GPT-6 Cyber (Nov 5) went only to vetted customers. GPT-6.2 is unannounced, but 'gpt-6.2-astra' showed in Codex usage stats Oct 31-Nov 1, a 'Betelgeuse' codename leaked, and Nov 10 API docs mention 'models 6.2 and later.' A rumored Nov 6 release did not happen.
- Each bracket resolves YES if, by 11:59 PM ET on its date, OpenAI officially launches a model named 'GPT-6.2' to the public. Otherwise NO.
- 1. Specificity: Counts: any model whose official name begins 'GPT-6.2' (e.g., Astra, Sol, Luna, Pro, Thinking, mini, Codex, Cyber), if OpenAI officially announces it as available and it is usable by the public in ChatGPT (any tier, even Plus/Pro only), Codex (all paid users of at least one plan), or the OpenAI API (generally available to developers). Staged rollouts count from the official launch.
- 2. Exclusion: Doesn't count: internal/A/B tests, silent routing, codename sightings, leaks, trusted-tester or research previews, vetted-customer-only or enterprise-only access, announcements without availability, accidental exposure without an official launch post, and other version names (e.g., GPT-6.1.x, GPT-6.5, GPT-7).
- 3. Source Hierarchy: Priority: OpenAI blog/newsroom, release notes, help center, API changelog. Secondary: official OpenAI/Sam Altman social accounts. Tertiary: Reuters, The Verge, TechCrunch.
- 4. Timing: Release must occur by 11:59 PM ET on the bracket date. A release after the deadline resolves NO. Once OpenAI officially releases GPT-6.2, all open brackets close and resolve YES.
- 5. Cancellation Rule: Announcement without availability resolves NO. If the model is officially launched and then withdrawn, resolution uses the first launch date (YES).
Data Source for Event Outcome
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- The Primary Resolution Data for this Event Outcome may be published on one of the following sites:
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- https://www.reuters.com/
- https://www.wsj.com
Resolution
- Resolution ID: cmwdr6efv0ihu01nrsfxtfy9t