When will an uncrewed Starship first soft-land on the Moon?
$1,202,204 Vol. 421d 15h left
Outcome
% Chance
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In 2029
$300,578 Vol.
38.0%
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In 2028
$293,390 Vol.
35.0%
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2030 or later, or never
$316,413 Vol.
15.0%
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In 2027 or earlier
$291,822 Vol.
12.0%
Description Under NASA's HLS contract, SpaceX must fly an uncrewed Starship lunar landing demo before any crewed attempt. As of Sept 2026 Starship has not reached sustained orbit, the required orbital propellant transfer demo is unflown, and the HLS lander variant is untested. SpaceX points to ~mid-2027 for the uncrewed demo; NASA targets Artemis IV (~2028) for the first crewed landing. This market asks in which calendar year (UTC) an uncrewed Starship-derived vehicle first soft-lands on the Moon; exactly one outcome resolves YES.
- 1. Specificity: Qualifying landing = controlled propulsive touchdown of a SpaceX Starship-derived vehicle (Starship HLS or any Starship variant) anywhere on the lunar surface, uncrewed, intact and upright (within 30 degrees of vertical), reported by NASA or SpaceX as a successful soft landing. Any sponsor counts. Bucket set by touchdown time.
- 2. Exclusion: Crashes, hard landings, tip-overs, aborted attempts, orbit/flyby/impact missions, landers carried as payload by Starship, and non-Starship vehicles (Blue Moon, CLPS) do not count; crewed landings are ignored. If official wording and vehicle attitude conflict, attitude governs: a vehicle resting on its side does not qualify. Attitude is judged at the first official post-landing report or T+24h, whichever is first; later loss does not reverse resolution.
- 3. Sources: NASA (nasa.gov) priority; SpaceX (spacex.com, @SpaceX) secondary; if neither is clear within 7 days, consensus of two of SpaceNews, Spaceflight Now, Reuters, AP, NASASpaceflight.com.
- 4. Timing (UTC): "In 2027 or earlier" = qualifying touchdown on or before 2027-12-31 23:59:59; "In 2028" = calendar 2028; "In 2029" = calendar 2029; "2030 or later, or never" = no qualifying landing by 2029-12-31 23:59:59.
- 5. Cancellation: delays or contract changes do not void the market, only push resolution later; a bucket resolves YES on official confirmation and others resolve NO.
Data Source for Event Outcome
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- The Primary Resolution Data for this Event Outcome may be published on one of the following sites:
- https://www.bloomberg.com/
- https://www.reuters.com/
- https://www.wsj.com
Resolution
- Resolution ID: cmu5tfzakl83t01qq4zelfg3q