What will the FOMC announce regarding the federal funds rate at its March 2026 meeting?
927,782 Vol.4 months ago (Mar-18-2026 06:30:00 PM UTC)
Outcome
% Chance
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RESOLVED
No Change (Pause)
$291,431 Vol.
100.0%
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RESOLVED
Cut (0.25%+)
$267,461 Vol.
0.0%
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RESOLVED
Hike (0.25%+)
$368,890 Vol.
0.0%
DescriptionThis event resolves based on the official announcement from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) at the conclusion of its scheduled meeting on March 18, 2026.
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- The "Official Policy Rate Rule" is in effect: The resolution is based on the target range for the federal funds rate as specified in the official FOMC statement released at approximately 14:00 ET. As of January 25, 2026, the federal funds rate stands at 3.50% to 3.75%. While there is immense political pressure from the new administration for lower rates, Jerome Powell has emphasized a "data-dependent" approach. Currently, institutional forecasts from iShares and ING suggest a high probability of a "No Change" decision (pause) to monitor inflation. If the Fed announces a 0.50% cut, it still resolves as "Cut (0.25%+)." Confirmation will be based on the official press release at federalreserve.gov. In the unlikely event that the Fed holds an unscheduled emergency meeting earlier in March that results in a rate change, the status as of the end of the scheduled March 18 meeting will be final for resolution. If the meeting is cancelled, the market resolves based on the official rate in effect at 23:59 ET on March 18.
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- As of January 25, 2026, the market is balancing between "Trump-flation" fears and the hope for a "soft landing." This meeting is particularly critical because it’s one of the last under Powell’s current term (expiring in May). Analysts are divided: some expect a "dovish pivot" to appease the White House, while others believe the Fed will stay firm to protect its independence. This market tracks the Fed's ultimate move in a high-stakes geopolitical and economic environment.
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- Resolution based on official Federal Reserve Board announcements.