What will markets price for the March 2026 FOMC by February 20, 2026?
1,040,886 Vol.5 months ago (Feb-20-2026 09:00:00 PM UTC)
Outcome
% Chance
Show chart
RESOLVED
No change
$293,358 Vol.
94.0%
Show chart
RESOLVED
Cut
$354,983 Vol.
5.2%
Show chart
RESOLVED
Hike
$392,546 Vol.
0.8%
DescriptionThis event resolves based on the interest rate move for the March 17–18, 2026 FOMC meeting priced as "most likely" by financial markets at the close of business on February 20, 2026. Determination is based on the highest probability assigned to a specific rate action (No change, Cut, or Hike) according to fed funds futures pricing data.
-
- The outcome is determined by the scenario with the highest percentage probability in the CME FedWatch Tool. If the probability for the target range remaining unchanged is higher than the cumulative probability of all cut or hike scenarios, the event resolves as No change. If the cumulative probability of any rate reduction is the highest, it resolves as Cut. If the cumulative probability of any rate increase is the highest, it resolves as Hike. In the case of an exact tie in probabilities between two outcomes, the outcome representing the most recent weekly trend in market pricing will be used as the tiebreaker.
-
- Ahead of resolution, this market is influenced by CPI and PCE inflation surprises, which shift rate expectations. Federal Reserve guidance through official speeches and meeting minutes also play a crucial role in how futures markets reprice policy paths. Market participants closely watch for deviations in payroll and growth data, as these often trigger immediate adjustments in FOMC meeting odds.
- The primary resolution source is the CME FedWatch Tool as of market close on February 20, 2026. Secondary sources include Bloomberg WIRP or other recognized aggregators of fed funds futures to confirm market sentiment. This event measures market conviction regarding Federal Reserve policy four weeks ahead of the March decision.