What will be the legislated annual Bitcoin purchase target for the U.S. Strategic Reserve?
2,251,710 Vol.4 months ago (Apr-02-2026 03:59:00 AM UTC)
Outcome
% Chance
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RESOLVED
No law passed by April 1
$583,160 Vol.
100.0%
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RESOLVED
Above 200k BTC
$564,815 Vol.
0.0%
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RESOLVED
100k–200k BTC
$543,075 Vol.
0.0%
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RESOLVED
Under 100k BTC
$554,746 Vol.
0.0%
DescriptionThis event resolves based on the specific annual Bitcoin purchase quantity mandated by the final version of the "BITCOIN Act of 2025" (S.954) or any successor legislation signed into law by April 1, 2026. The original proposal by Senator Cynthia Lummis called for the purchase of 200,000 BTC per year for five years (totaling 1 million BTC), but ongoing committee negotiations suggest potential amendments to the purchase schedule.
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- The outcome is determined by the text of the enacted law. If the final legislation defines a fixed annual target, the market resolves according to that number. If the law defines a total target (e.g., 500,000 BTC over 5 years), the annual average will be used for resolution (e.g., 100,000 BTC per year). If the law provides a range (e.g., "up to 200k"), the minimum mandatory purchase amount specified in the statute will be the deciding factor.
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- If the "BITCOIN Act" or a functional equivalent that codifies a purchase program is not signed into law by 23:59 ET on April 1, 2026, the event resolves as "No law passed by April 1." This outcome includes scenarios where a reserve is established via Executive Order but lacks a congressionally mandated purchase program and budget.
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- Ahead of resolution, this market is driven by "markups" in the Senate Banking Committee and the House Financial Services Committee. Rumors of a "compromise bill" with a reduced purchase target to satisfy fiscal hawks or to pass as part of a larger budget reconciliation package will create significant volatility.
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- Primary resolution source: Final bill text published on Congress.gov or the official Public Law (P.L.) document issued by the Government Publishing Office (GPO).