Strategy's bitcoin stack: how high will MSTR's reported holdings go by September 28, 2026?
20,539 Vol.in 27 days (Sep-28-2026 11:59:00 PM UTC)
Outcome
% Chance
Show chart
855,000 BTC
$7,164 Vol.
72.0%
Show chart
850,000 BTC
$3,434 Vol.
65.0%
Show chart
860,000 BTC
$9,941 Vol.
48.0%
DescriptionStrategy (MSTR) held 845,050 BTC as of Aug 30, 2026, after a 4,603 BTC buy ended a 10-week pause in which it was a net seller; mNAV was ~1.02x market / ~1.07x enterprise on Aug 31, capping accretive ATM issuance. MSCI's Aug 2026 "non-operating company" consultation that could delete Strategy from ACWI IMI closes Sept 30, with results by Oct 16 and effects no earlier than the Nov 2026 Index Review — all after this deadline, so MSCI is context only. Remaining weekly 8-K windows: Sept 8, 14, 21, 28.
- Each outcome resolves YES if an official Strategy disclosure published on or before 2026-09-28 23:59 UTC states aggregate bitcoin holdings at or above that outcome's threshold. Each outcome resolves NO if no such disclosure appears by the deadline.
- 1. Specificity: Any Strategy SEC filing (8-K, 10-Q, FWP/424B) or official Strategy press release stating aggregate bitcoin holdings at or above the threshold counts; "aggregate bitcoin holdings" means Strategy and subsidiaries' total as stated, as of the disclosure's as-of date.
- 2. Exclusion: Third-party trackers, on-chain estimates, analyst models, media reports not backed by a Strategy disclosure, and Saylor social posts without a filing or press release do not count.
- 3. Source Hierarchy: Strategy SEC EDGAR filings (https://www.sec.gov/cgi bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001050446) priority. Strategy press releases (https://www.strategy.com/press) secondary. MSCI consultations page (https://www.msci.com/index consultations) tertiary, context only.
- 4. Timing: The EDGAR "Accepted" datetime (ET) converted to UTC governs for filings; site publication time governs for press releases. Disclosures published Sept 29 or later resolve NO.
- 5. Cancellation Rule: No cancellation. YES needs a reported holdings figure, not an intention or authorized program. Once disclosed, the outcome locks YES; only a formal restatement of that same as-of figure unwinds it — a later lower figure from subsequent sales does not.