Starship IFT-12 launch in March?
278,823 Vol.5 months ago (Mar-31-2026 11:55:00 PM UTC)
DescriptionThis event predicts if SpaceX will launch the Starship IFT-12 mission by March 31, 2026. The launch is subject to technical readiness and the issuance of a modified FAA launch license for the Starbase facility. The market resolves to Yes if the official liftoff occurs before midnight ET on April 1, 2026. If a launch window opens in March but is repeatedly scrubbed into April due to range safety, weather, or technical holds, the outcome is No.
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- The event resolves based on the actual time of liftoff as recorded by SpaceX or the FAA. If SpaceX decides to launch a V2 prototype instead of the expected V3 for the twelfth flight, the market still resolves based on the flight sequence number (IFT-12). If the mission is officially rescheduled to April or beyond before the deadline, it resolves to No. This accounts for any administrative or regulatory delays that might prevent a March launch.
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- A countdown reaching T-0 without the vehicle clearing the tower (e.g., an on-pad abort) is considered a failed attempt, and the market remains open for the next available window within the month. Resolution is based on the official timestamp of the vehicle clearing the launch tower. If an attempt starts in March but liftoff occurs after 00:00 ET on April 1, it resolves to No. All outcomes are evaluated based on official SpaceX or government records.
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- Primary resolution relies on SpaceX mission logs and FAA data. If primary channels are offline, verified coverage from Reuters, AP, or NASASpaceflight will be used. This market measures the operational pace of the Starship program and its regulatory compliance. If the mission is suspended indefinitely or canceled before April, the event resolves to No. The transition to Daylight Saving Time on March 8 is accounted for in all timing evaluations.