Solana Alpenglow: how fast does Agave v4.3 take over mainnet stake?
40,103 Vol.in 25 days (Sep-22-2026 02:00:00 AM UTC)
Outcome
% Chance
Show chart
33% on Sept 21
$23,874 Vol.
55.0%
Show chart
5% on Sept 11
$7,126 Vol.
28.0%
Show chart
15% on Sept 16
$9,102 Vol.
25.0%
DescriptionAlpenglow (SIMD-0326) retires Tower BFT for "Votor" two-round voting with ~150ms finality. Anza's v4.3 schedule tags a Mainnet Upgrade Candidate (MUC) Sept 4, asks volunteers for 10% of stake on Sept 8 and 25% on Sept 14 — request dates, not attainment deadlines — recommends general adoption Sept 21, and targets activation Sept 28; Anza calls it tentative. In the v4.2 cycle the new version held ~0% of stake at MUC+4 days, ~11% at MUC+17 and ~80% at MUC+25; thresholds below are market-defined and calibrated to that curve.
- Each outcome resolves YES if the stated share is met at its snapshot, else NO.
- 1. Specificity: Share = (currentActiveStake + delinquentActiveStake) of counting versions / top-level totalActiveStake, to 2 decimals. Counting shapes: (a) 4.y.z with y>=3 including prerelease suffixes (4.3.0-rc.1, 4.3.0-beta.2), or a later Agave major from the anza-xyz/agave lineage; (b) major==0 builds (Frankendancer) whose patch integer is >=40300; (c) any build encoding an Agave base >=4.3.0 in a prerelease tag, e.g. 1.100.0-beta.40300.
- 2. Exclusion: every other version shape, including Firedancer CalVer (26.x, 27.x) and any pre-4.3 Agave base; testnet/devnet stake; validator-count percentages; pledges without observed stake. Unknown/absent versions stay in the denominator.
- 3. Source Hierarchy: "solana validators --output json" stakeByVersion on api.mainnet-beta.solana.com is priority. stakeByClientId from the same call breaks client-identity ties. Stakewiz secondary.
- 4. Timing: one reading at 23:59:59 UTC on each snapshot date decides that outcome; intra-window peaks do not count. If the primary fails, use Stakewiz at the same timestamp, else the latest primary reading within 24h prior, else NO.
- 5. Cancellation Rule: A reschedule, delay, cancellation or October slip voids nothing — outcomes resolve on observed stake share at the stated snapshots. An announcement without observed qualifying stake resolves NO.