How will U.S. auto loan delinquencies be described in the next major read by March 23, 2026?
785,437 Vol.4 months ago (Mar-24-2026 04:59:00 AM UTC)
Outcome
% Chance
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RESOLVED
Crisis level: 4.00% and more
$266,539 Vol.
100.0%
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RESOLVED
Recovery: less than 3.70%
$254,624 Vol.
0.0%
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RESOLVED
Stagnation: 3.70% - 3.99%
$264,273 Vol.
0.0%
DescriptionThis event resolves based on the U.S. auto loan delinquency rate (30+ days past due) as reported in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit released by March 23, 2026. The resolution is determined by the specific aggregate percentage of outstanding auto loan balances transitionally entering delinquency.
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- The outcome is determined by the numerical percentage provided in the report. If the reported rate is less than 3.70%, the outcome resolves as Recovery. If the rate is between 3.70% and 3.99% inclusive, the outcome resolves as Stagnation. If the rate is 4.00% or higher, the outcome resolves as Crisis level. A lapse for any segment of the auto credit market covered by the report that pushes the aggregate to these thresholds will trigger the corresponding outcome.
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- Ahead of resolution, this market is influenced by the narrative within the NY Fed’s Household Debt & Credit blog posts, bank earnings commentary from major auto lenders (e.g., Ally, Capital One), and subprime stress headlines. Traders monitor data regarding the "Hour X" of the report's release and broader macroeconomic indicators such as unemployment and interest rate trends that directly impact a borrower's ability to service auto debt.
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- The primary resolution source is the Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit issued by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Secondary sources include official data tables and press releases from the NY Fed's Center for Microeconomic Data. This event measures the health of the U.S. consumer auto credit market.