How many monthly active users will Atlas browser have by April 2026?
2,334,102 Vol.5 months ago (Apr-02-2026 03:59:00 AM UTC)
Outcome
% Chance
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RESOLVED
Under 10 million
$465,931 Vol.
100.0%
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RESOLVED
50M – 100M
$565,406 Vol.
0.0%
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RESOLVED
10M – 20M
$351,704 Vol.
0.0%
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RESOLVED
20M – 50M
$464,752 Vol.
0.0%
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RESOLVED
Over 100 Million
$481,773 Vol.
0.0%
DescriptionThis event resolves based on the official Monthly Active Users (MAU) count for the Atlas browser, as reported by OpenAI or verified through reputable third-party analytics data (e.g., Similarweb, Sensor Tower, or Comscore) for the period ending April 1, 2026.
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- MAU is defined as the number of unique users who have engaged with the Atlas browser application at least once within the 30-day period preceding the resolution date. Following its October 2025 launch on macOS, Atlas saw rapid adoption among tech professionals, with early 2026 estimates placing the potential user base at 40-50 million if OpenAI successfully converts just 5% of its 800 million weekly ChatGPT users. The release of the Windows and mobile versions in early 2026 is expected to be the primary catalyst for reaching the 100M+ milestone.
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- Ahead of resolution, the market will be influenced by official OpenAI press releases, growth updates from Sam Altman, and data from enterprise adoption reports (e.g., Cyberhaven). Competitive pressure from Google's "Gemini-native" Chrome updates and Perplexity’s Comet browser will also play a role in shaping market expectations. If OpenAI provides a specific range (e.g., "over 30 million"), the lower bound of that range will be used for resolution unless a more precise figure is available.
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- Resolution will prioritize official data from OpenAI’s investor relations or newsroom. In the absence of direct company data, an average of reports from at least two major analytics providers will be used to determine the final bracket.
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- This event measures the speed of displacement of traditional browsers by AI-native platforms and the ability of OpenAI to leverage its existing user base into new infrastructure.