How many federal jobs will be officially cut or eliminated under the DOGE initiative by April 1, 2026?
1,131,275 Vol.5 months ago (Apr-01-2026 03:59:00 AM UTC)
Outcome
% Chance
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RESOLVED
200,000 – 299,999
$299,738 Vol.
100.0%
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RESOLVED
Under 100,000
$255,891 Vol.
0.0%
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RESOLVED
100,000 – 199,999
$206,916 Vol.
0.0%
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RESOLVED
300,000 – 399,999
$368,730 Vol.
0.0%
DescriptionThis event resolves based on the total net reduction in the number of U.S. Federal Civilian Employees (Full-Time Equivalent or headcount) officially reported between January 20, 2025, and April 1, 2026, specifically attributed to or occurring during the tenure of the DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) initiative.
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- The "Net Reduction Rule" is in effect: The resolution is based on the difference between the baseline federal workforce in September 2024 (approx. 2.31 million) and the official count reported by the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) or the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) as of April 1, 2026. This count includes voluntary separations, buyouts, hiring freezes (attrition), and forced Reductions in Force (RIFs). If a court orders the rehiring of employees (as seen with NIOSH in Jan 2026), those employees count as "reinstated" and are NOT part of the total cut count for resolution purposes. Mandatory Surcharges or severance costs do NOT affect the headcount. Confirmation will be based on the OPM "FedScope" database or official White House/DOGE summary reports. If the OPM data for April is delayed, the last available official monthly report (e.g., March 2026) will be used.
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- As of January 20, 2026, the count stands at approximately 228,000 departures. While many were voluntary, the administration is pushing for a second wave of mandatory cuts targeting the EPA, IRS, and Department of Education. Critics argue that "DOGE" is simply miscounting normal attrition as "cuts," while supporters claim the $2 trillion savings goal requires reaching the 500,000 mark. This market tracks if the "Chainsaw" will stall in the courts or reach its next major milestone by spring.
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- Resolution based on official OPM/BLS federal workforce data.